Haryana Exit Poll 2024 Results Highlights: Polling took place on Saturday in Haryana’s 90 Assembly seats, with all exit polls predicting a clear majority for the Congress in Haryana. ‘Dainik Bhaskar’ predicted the Congress getting 44-54 seats and the BJP 15-29 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. The Republic-Matrize poll put the Congress tally even higher at 55-62 seats as against the BJP’s 18-24. The Red Mike-Datansh exit poll gave the Congress 50-55 seats in Haryana and the BJP at 20-25, while Dhruv Research pegged the Congress at 50-64 and the BJP 22-32. Peoples’ Pulse exit poll gave the Congress 49-60 seats and the BJP 20-32 seats in Haryana. Most exit polls pegged INLD tally higher than that of the JJP, while others were seen getting up to 10 seats. Results will be announced on October 8.
In response to a question about the Congress' chief ministerial candidate, Kumari Selja says, "Once the results are out, a meeting of the Congress Legislature Party (CLP) will be convened. After that, it goes to the high command, and there is a due process that must be followed. Ultimately, the final decision will be made by the Congress high command."
Several exit polls predicted a clear majority for the Congress in Haryana. "Dainik Bhaskar" forecasted the Congress securing 44 to 54 seats, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expected to win between 15 and 29 seats in the 90-member Assembly. The Republic-Matrize poll projected an even higher tally for the Congress, estimating 55 to 62 seats compared to the BJP's 18 to 24.
The Red Mike-Datansh exit poll estimated the Congress would win 50 to 55 seats, while the BJP was projected to secure 20 to 25 seats. Dhruv Research placed the Congress at 50 to 64 seats and the BJP at 22 to 32. The Peoples' Pulse exit poll also anticipated the Congress would secure 49 to 60 seats, with the BJP winning 20 to 32. Most exit polls indicated a higher tally for the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) compared to the Janata Jan Party (JJP), with some projections suggesting the INLD could win up to 10 seats.
In the previous assembly elections, most exit polls predicted a decisive victory for the BJP. India Today-Axis MyIndia exit poll had forecast 38 seats for the BJP, 36 for Congress, and 8 for other parties. The ABP-C Voter exit poll projected 72 seats for the BJP and 8 for Congress, while News 18-IPSOS estimated 75 seats for the BJP and 10 for Congress. However, the election resulted in a hung Assembly, with no party securing a majority. The BJP later formed the government with the support of the Janata Jan Party (JJP) and several independent MLAs, and Manohar Lal Khattar was sworn-in as the CM.
Wrestler and Congress candidate from Julana Vinesh Phogat says this is a moment of happiness and the exit polls predictions are a result of the 10-year misrule of the BJP government in the state.
VIDEO | Haryana elections 2024: "This is a moment of happiness for the people of Haryana. This is the result of the atrocities people had to face in the last 10 years. I would like to congratulate the Congress for this brilliant performance," says Congress candidate from Julana… pic.twitter.com/shSVh0ih6U
— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) October 5, 2024
Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini says that he is confident that the BJP will form the government again with a complete majority on October 8.
VIDEO | Haryana elections 2024: "We are confident that the BJP will form the government again with a complete majority on October 8. Work has been done for every section of society in the last 10 years, and the state has been freed from regionalism and dynastic politics," says… pic.twitter.com/DMAq2SPlzJ
— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) October 5, 2024
With exit polls predicting a Congress win in Haryana, the focus now is on who would be the next CM. In an interview to NDTV, when former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda was asked if Kumari Selja could be the next CM, he replied saying that it is upon the MLAs and the high command to decide that. Hooda is one of the front-runners for the post.
AICC General Secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir said that there has been a wave in Haryana for the past six months indicating that the BJP will be wiped out from the state. "Exit polls reflect this sentiment, and we believe the Congress will win even more seats than predicted and form a government with a strong majority," he said.
Here's what pollsters are predicting:
Source: IE
No, while exit polls have been accurate at times, they have also been incorrect. It is noteworthy that exit polls are just predictions and not actual results. The results for Haryana elections will be known on October 8, when the counting of votes happens.
According to NDTV's Poll of Polls, the Congress party is projected to win between 55 and 62 seats in Haryana, which would secure a clear majority in the 90-member Assembly. This anticipated victory marks a significant shift in the political landscape of the state, as the Congress seeks to reclaim power after a decade in opposition.
Dainik Bhaskar has predicted the AAP to secure 0-1 seat in the 90-member Assembly. The magic figure is 46. Dhruv Research, Peoples Pulse and Republic Bharat - Matrize have predicted 0 seats for AAP in Haryana.
Dainik Bhaskar predicts the BJP to secure 15-29 seats while Congress is predicted to bag 44-54 seats. The magic figure in the 90 member Assembly is 46. Dhruv Research predicts 50-64 seats for the Congress, while 22-32 seats for the BJP.
People Pulse predicts 49-61 seats for Congress while 20-32 seats for Congress, and Republic Bharat - Matrize predicts 55-62 seats for Congress and 18-24 seats for BJP.
In 2019, most polls predicted a significant victory for the BJP, with some forecasting wins in over 70 seats. However, the election resulted in a hung Assembly, with no party crossing the majority mark.
An average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP would secure 61 seats, while the Congress was projected to have just 18. In reality, the BJP won only 40 seats, and the Congress finished with 31. This meant the polls overestimated the BJP’s performance by 21 seats and underestimated the Congress's tally by 13.
Seven exit polls suggested the BJP would achieve a majority on its own. NewsX-Pollstrat predicted the BJP would win between 75 and 80 seats, while India Today-Axis estimated a range of 32 to 44 seats, indicating the party would fall short of a majority.
Only three polls anticipated the Congress would surpass 20 seats, and just one predicted it would exceed 30. India Today-Axis’s projection of 30 to 42 seats for the Congress was the most accurate.
In 2014, the BJP ended the Congress's decade-long hold on power in Haryana. An average of four exit polls had predicted that the BJP would narrowly miss the 46-seat majority in the 90-seat Assembly, estimating around 43 seats for the party. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) was projected to be the runner-up with 27 seats, while the Congress was expected to secure 13.
In reality, the BJP won 47 seats, and the Congress finished with 15, slightly exceeding exit poll predictions. However, pollsters significantly underestimated the INLD, which garnered only 19 seats, falling short by an average of eight seats.
Two polls, News 24-Chanakya and ABP News-Nielsen, correctly forecasted that the BJP would surpass the majority threshold. Times Now and India TV-CVoter accurately predicted the Congress's seat count, while News 24-Chanakya provided the closest estimate for the INLD's final tally.
In Haryana, exit polls in 2014 were largely accurate in predicting the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) victory. However, in 2019, many pollsters misjudged the outcome, anticipating a landslide win for the BJP instead of the hung Assembly that ultimately emerged. The discrepancy showed the challenges and unpredictability of forecasting any election results.
From Vinesh Phogat to Savitri Jindal to Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini are the key candidates among the 1,031 candidates who are in the fray. Read more about the key candidates in contest in the Haryana elections 2024.
No. Exit polls can provide insights into electoral outcomes, but their reliability varies. Conducted after voters cast their ballots, they aim to predict election results based on a sample of voters. While some exit polls have been accurate, others have missed the mark, particularly in close races or when voter demographics shift unexpectedly.
Factors such as sampling methods, question phrasing, and voter turnout can all influence accuracy. Consequently, while exit polls can offer a glimpse into potential outcomes, they should be viewed with caution and not as final predictions of election results.
Among the key candidates in the race are Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, along with BJP leaders Anil Vij and O.P. Dhankar. The Congress is represented by Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Vinesh Phogat. Other notable contenders include Abhay Singh Chautala from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Dushyant Chautala from the Janata Jan Party (JJP).
The main parties contesting the elections include the BJP, Congress, the INLD-BSP alliance, the JJP-Azad Samaj Party alliance, and the Aam Aadmi Party.
As soon as polling concludes, exit polls will start pouring in which will provide the possibilities of who will win the Haryana elections 2024.
Voting for all 90 Assembly seats in Haryana, which began at 7 am, will conclude at 6 pm. Counting of votes will be taken up on October 8.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming for a third consecutive term in Haryana, looking to build on its previous successes in the state. Meanwhile, the Congress party is determined to stage a comeback after a decade in opposition.
Hello readers! Welcome to Financial Express.com. Stay tuned as we bring all latest updates on who could possibly win Haryana. Exit polls would be announced only after polling concludes at 6 PM.