Early voter sentiment surveys have projected a comfortable win for the JD(U)-BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar Election 2025 on Tuesday. Most projections pointed to a decisive edge of NDA over the Mahagathbandhan and a muted debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj. The two-phase Assembly elections, conducted on November 6 and 11, have set the stage for a high-stakes verdict on November 14.
Early estimates showed remarkable consistency across agencies. The Matrize Exit Poll projected 147-167 seats for the NDA in the 243-member House, well above the majority mark of 122. It placed the Mahagathbandhan in the 70-90 range, while Jan Suraaj was estimated to win barely 0-2 seats. Dainik Bhaskar’s poll delivered a similar picture, pegging the NDA at 145-160 seats and the opposition alliance at 73-91.
More data to come tomorrow
More data is expected on Wednesday, with Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya slated to release their surveys. The C-Voter exit poll might release its analysis tomorrow, however there is no official word on it yet. Meanwhile, other pollsters who published their findings on Tuesday also leaned heavily towards an NDA victory.
NDA’s comfortable win in all exit polls
People’s Insight forecast 133-148 seats for the ruling coalition, 87-102 for the Mahagathbandhan and 0-2 for Jan Suraaj. People’s Pulse projected 133-159 seats for the NDA, 75–101 for the opposition bloc and up to five seats for Kishor’s party.
The trend continued across additional agencies. JVC predicted 135-150 seats for the NDA and 88-103 for the Mahagathbandhan, while Polstrat gave them 133-148 and 87-102 respectively. Chanakya Strategies offered one of the narrower ranges, with 130-138 seats for the NDA and 100-108 for the Mahagathbandhan, assigning zero seats to Jan Suraaj. P-Marq projected 142-162 seats for the NDA, 80-98 for the opposition and 1-4 for the new entrant.