Bihar Election Results 2025 | Exit Polls: As Bihar awaits the Assembly election results 2025 on Friday, the big question that has been looming since the exit polls, is whether any party will win a clear majority or if the state is headed for a hung assembly. While most exit polls suggest a comeback for the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, the possibility of a tight race, with no side crossing the halfway mark, still looms large. And this did show up in the exit poll results shared by Axis My India.
Bihar Election Results 2025: 3 reasons why there’s a possibility of a hung Assembly
1. Narrow Margins
According to the exit poll released by Axis My India for the 243-seat Bihar Assembly predicts a close contest for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP. The NDA, as per the poll, is expected to get between 121 and 141 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, is projected to give a tough fight with 98 to 118 seats. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is likely to have little influence, with only 0 to 2 seats expected.
In fact, the Times Now-C-Voter exit poll has also predicted a hung assembly, with the Mahagathbandhan expected to get 120 seats and the NDA close behind with 116.
Now this shows a very close contest between the NDA and the MGB. And if the results are tied, there is a possibility that Bihar could end up with a hung Assembly.
2. High voter turnout
Bihar saw its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14% in the second phase of polling, with women voting in greater numbers than men by 8.8%. Long lines were seen at polling booths, especially in sensitive areas like Kishanganj. High voter turnout like this often hints at major shifts, sometimes showing voter angst against the ruling party or quiet support for the Opposition. This strong participation, particularly in rural areas, could benefit the Mahagathbandhan and reduce the NDA’s lead, possibly resulting in a hung assembly.
3. Exit polls are not accurate
Even though a few exit polls have indicated towards a hung assembly, the majority of them have given a clear win to the NDA. But as we know, exit polls are never accurate. In fact, they have failed many times before. For example, all the exit polls after the Lok Sabha election 2024 had projected a landslide victory for the BJP and about 400 seats for the ruling alliance. However, the BJP ended up bagging just 240 seats, which was less than the halfway mark in the 543-member house. The ruling coalition of the NDA won 292 seats, 100 seats fewer than predicted in exit polls.
Independent MP from Purnea, Pappu Yadav, had shared that based on his experience in Bihar, he believes the people have largely voted for the Mahagathbandhan and that the results could lead to a hung assembly or a government formed by the MGB.
So even if majority of exit polls have given their verdict to NDA’s win, a hung assembly could sure turn out to be a possibility.