The high-stakes Assembly polls in Bihar drew to a close on Tuesday evening following a record-breaking turnout. Both sides have predicted a resounding victory while Prashant Kishor — the proverbial ‘X factor’ in the elections believes that his barely-one-year-old party will emerge as a favoured ‘alternative’ for Bihar. Exit polls have now given a clear edge to the NDA while the Opposition INDIA bloc trailed as a distant second.

According to the NDTV Poll of Polls, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is projected to win a whopping 152 seats seats. The Mahagathbandhan is expected to be a distant second merely 84 seats. The Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj Party likely failed to make a dent in the polls — with exit polls predicting only two seats for it.

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The analysis took three separate exit polls into account on Tuesday evening — combining data collected via different sample sizes and methodologies. The consolidated prediction helps to smooth out individual poll biases or errors and provides a broader indication of likely election outcomes.

What have the exit polls predicted?

  • According to Hyderabad-based Peoples Pulse, NDA has a clear edge with 133–159 seats and a strong 46.2% vote share. Mahagathbandhan gets 75-101 and Jan Suraaj 0-5.
  • According to DV Research, NDA is predicted to form government with 137-152 seats. Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, is getting 83-98 seats. Jan Suraaj gets 2-4 seats and others are getting 1-8 seats.
  • According to be JVC’s exit poll, NDA is getting 142 seats, MGB is getting 95 and JSP 1 and Others are predicted to get 5 seats.
  • The Matrize exit poll survey is also hinting at 147-167 seats for NDA, a comfortable majority. The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 70-90 seats in the polls, according to Matrize.
  • As per the Dainik Bhaskar exit poll, NDA is projected to win 145-160 seats in the polls. MGB is winning 73-91 seats and Others are projected to win 5-10 seats. Jan Suraaj is not winning on any seat as per Dainik Bhaskar.
  • An exit poll data from People’s Insight shows 133-148 seats for NDA, 87-102 seats for MGB and 0-2 seats for JSP. Others are projected to win 3-6 seats, People’s Insight data shows.

How many seats are required to form govt?

Polling was held in two phases for the 243-seat Bihar Assembly. The counting of votes will commence on November 14 with results announced on the same day. The winning party or coalition will need to secure at least 122 seats in order to form the next Bihar government.