The GDP growth rate in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of the last fiscal stood at 5.6 per cent, 5.1 per cent, and 4.7 per cent respectively.Q4 FY 2019-20 GDP growth estimates Highlights: India’s economy slowed down to 3.1 per cent in Q4 on the back of the coronavirus pandemic superimposed on a prolonged slowdown. Though the GDP growth estimates have surpassed most estimates made by various economists and rating agencies, the government has left a caveat that the figures can be revised as the current data is insufficient. With the release of Q4 GDP growth, the full year 2019-20 GDP growth stood at 4.2 per cent. The government has also revised down the GDP growth in Q1, Q2, and Q3 to 5.2 per cent, 4.4 per cent, and 4.1 per cent respectively. As India travels through the path of economic uncertainty, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter becomes important as it includes the figures for one week of lockdown. It is also expected that today’s figures will help to determine the impact of the pandemic more clearly. Meanwhile, the growth rate of eight core industries for April 2020 fell by 38.1 per cent, compared to a fall of 9 per cent in March 2020. The output of electricity fell by 22.8 per cent, while the output of cement fell by 86 per cent; steel by 84 per cent; fertiliser by 4.5; refinery by 24.2 per cent; crude oil by 6.4 per cent; and coal by 15.5 per cent in April 2020. Even before the coronavirus cases started to surge in India, the country’s economy was struggling through a prolonged economic slowdown.
Highlights
Growth in the last quarter of FY 2020 has been the slowest since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Although the market analysts had expected a slower growth this quarter, the extent of the slowdown remains elusive. If one may recollect, economic activities were showing signs of traction in early 2020. India’s industrial production for the first two months suggested that green shoots were appearing in industrial activities - Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India
Even as the GDP growth estimates surpassed most estimates made by various economists and rating agencies, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has mentioned that the data flow from the economic entities has been impacted due to the pandemic and therefore the quarterly and annual estimates are likely to be revised. Read full story here
India's fiscal deficit has skyrocketed to 4.6 per cent of GDP in the last fiscal while the government had set a target 3.8 per cent of GDP. Full year fiscal deficit stood at Rs 9.36 lakh crore, against a target of Rs 7.67 lakh crore.
Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant prices in the year 2019-20 is now estimated to attain a level of Rs 145.66 lakh crore, as against the first revised estimate of FY19 GDP of Rs 139.81 lakh crore.
Q4 GDP print came in higher than most economists' estimates at 3.1%. On the output front, agri and mining sectors seem to have held forts. On the expenditure front, government spending seems to have saved the day. Private consumption, Gross fixed capital formation and net exports have been disappointing - Abhishek Goenka, Founder & CEO, IFA Global
GDP at constant prices in Q4 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 38.04 lakh crore, compared to Rs 36.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2018-19.
In view of the global COVID-19 pandemic and consequent nationwide lockdown measures implemented since March, 2020, the data flow from the economic entities has been impacted. As some of these units are yet to resume operations and owing to the fact that the statutory timelines for submitting the requisite financial returns have been extended by the Government, these estimates are based on the available data. Consequently, the quarterly and annual estimates are likely to undergo revision - MOSPI
With the release of Q4 GDP growth, the full year 2019-20 GDP growth stood at 4.2 per cent as the government also revised down previous quarters' growth figures.
The government has also revised down the GDP growth in Q1, Q2, and Q3 to 5.2 per cent, 4.4 per cent, and 4.1 per cent respectively.
July-Sep GDP growth revised to 4.4% from 5.1% earlier.
Oct-Dec GDP growth revised to 4.1% from 4.7% earlier.
Manufacturing sector growth at -1.4% vs 2.1% on year.
Mining sector growth at 5.2% against -4.8% on year
Farm sector growth is at 5.9% against 1.6% on year.
Jan-March GVA has expanded 3% on year.
Govt says GDP estimates are likely to undergo revision.
Govt says data flow from economic entities has been impacted on lockdown.
Govt sees FY20 GDP growth at 4.2% on-year.
Q4FY20 GDP comes in at 3.1% against CNBC-TV18 poll of 2.2%.
The agriculture sector grew at 5.9% in Q4, compared to 1.6% in the same quarter a year ago.
India's economy grew at 3.1 per cent in January-March quarter. The GDP growth has exceeded most estimates made by various rating agencies.
The government will soon release last year's fourth-quarter GDP growth estimates.
Though a normal rainfall is expected in the current fiscal, its possibility to offset the disruption caused by coronavirus pandemic on the agriculture sector is less.
Lockdown in March is likely to have erased the gains of January and February, Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India economist at HSBC, said in a report on May 27.
India sees the biggest ever fall in infrastructure output as the country goes under lockdown to arrest the coronavirus pandemic.
The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25% contraction, said Crisil Chief Economist DK Joshi in a report this week. Crisil sees the Indian economy contracting by 5 percent in FY21.
Even as the government claims high producion of fertiliser, fertilisers production fell 4.5 per cent in April 2020 over April 2019.
Industrial production is expected to steeply fall in April as the eight core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
Construction output in India fell by 38.10 percent in April 2020 over the same month in the previous year.
In view of nationwide lockdown during April 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, various industries viz. Coal, Cement, Steel, Natural Gas, Refinery, Crude Oil etc experienced substantial loss of production, said the Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
The growth rate of eight core industries for April 2020 fell by 38.1 per cent, compared to a fall of 9 per cent in March 2020. The output of electricity fell by 22.8 per cent, while the output of cement fell by 86 per cent; steel by 84 per cent; fertiliser by 4.5; refinery by 24.2 per cent; crude oil by 6.4 per cent; and coal by 15.5 per cent in April 2020.
Given the unprecedented conditions arising from coronavirus pandemic and a prolonged slowdown, the government revised higher its budget deficit for the last fiscal year to 3.8 percent from an earlier 3.3 percent.
Production of refinery products fell 0.5 percent in March, compared to 7.4 percent growth in the same month a year ago, electricity fell by 7.2 percent vs 11.7 percent growth, steel fell by 13.0 percent vs 6.3 percent growth, and crude oil fell by 5.5 percent vs fall of 6.4 percent.
India's infrastructure output shrank 6.5 percent from a year earlier in March 2020, the steepest pace of contraction since the series began in 2005, following an upwardly revised 7.1 percent growth in the previous month.
The government will soon release full-year FY20 fiscal deficit data. India's fiscal deficit widened sharply to a record high of Rs 10.36 trillion in April-February 2019-20 from Rs 8.51 trillion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. That was equivalent to 135.2 percent of the government’s budget estimate for this financial year.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said that India's economy will likely contract in the current fiscal.
A major fall in economic activities due to the coronavirus-led nationwide lockdown in the first quarter of the current fiscal may cause the quarterly GDP to nosedive. The contraction in the Q1 FY21 GDP may be as high as 40 per cent, said the SBI Ecowrap report. Read full story here
RBI's decision to extend the moratorium period on retail loans may make investors more cautious about the performance of retail loan pools for the near term and may hurt the securitisation market, severely affecting liquidity for NBFCs. While the extension would provide relief to many retail borrowers, it would be detrimental to the securitisation market which has been a key funding source for the NBFCs, HFCs, and MFIs, ICRA said in a report. Read full story here
Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the power and new and renewable ministries should come up with state-specific measures to improve the condition of electricity in different states. Reviewing the power sector, Narendra Modi added that there is a need to enhance consumer satisfaction while increasing operational efficiency and improving the financial sustainability of electricity. Read full story here
In a survey conducted by a national trade body with responses of over 100 companies, most companies said that the stimulus package of the government did not benefit them and it was ineffective. Many companies also said there was little fiscal support either to the industry or to the poor.