India’s economy is estimated to grow 7.4% in real terms in FY26, according to the first advance estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. The growth projection marks an improvement over the 6.5% expansion recorded in FY25.
In nominal terms, GDP is estimated to rise 8.0% in FY26. The first advance estimate of GDP was keenly awaited as the government takes this into account for Budget 2026 policy decisions.
The real gross value added (GVA) is projected to rise 7.3% in FY26 and services sector remains the key growth engine, according to MoSPI.
Private consumption, was seen expanding by 7% year-on-year(YoY) compared to a 7.2% expansion last fiscal year.
Why today’s GDP estimates matter for Budget 2026
The Union Budget is scheduled to be presented on Sunday, February 1. The government assumes a certain level of nominal GDP growth for the next year taking into account the First Advance Estimates of this fiscal year. This, in turn, determines how much fiscal deficit is feasible and how much tax growth can be expected.
How economists reacted
The State Bank of India’s research team stated that GDP growth for FY26 would be around 7.5% with upward bias. “The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, all these numbers are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23”, they said.
Radhika Rao, Senior Economist at DBS Bank, said that the stronger-than-expected nominal GDP base in FY25 reduces the risk that FY26 deficit targets will be missed solely because of slower growth, and the expenditure compression is likely in FY26 to keep within the deficit target.
Rajini Sinha of CareEdge said, “With GDP growth remaining healthy, we feel that the MPC is unlikely to cut rate further in the next meeting. Given the turbulent global landscape, we expect the MPC to pause and preserve the policy space for a future rate cut only if the growth outlook deteriorates”
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: DBS Bank's Radhika Rao says expenditure compression is likely in FY26
Radhika Rao, Executive Director and Senior Economist at DBS Bank, notes that although the nominal GDP growth of sub-9% is weaker than the budgeted 10.1%, the number is closer to the RE numbers for FY25. In effect, the stronger-than-expected nominal GDP base in FY25 reduces the risk that FY26 deficit targets will be missed solely because of slower growth.
“That said, expenditure compression is likely in FY26 to keep within the deficit target. Into FY27, higher deflators will bode well for the nominal growth rate. We also note that the second advance estimate in late February will garner more interest as it will be based on the new series and carry backdated numbers as well. Changes in the incorporated series will adopt updated methodologies, offer better granularity, and capture the shift in sectoral weightage in the past decade.” Rao elaborate
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: Private consumption growth slows to 7% in FY25
Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, was seen expanding by 7% year-on-year(YoY) compared to a 7.2% expansion last fiscal year.
The Indian economy grew 6.5% in FY25 and 9.2% in FY24.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: Second Advance Estimates GDP on 27 February
This was the First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for FY26. The Ministry of Statistics said the Second Advance Estimates will be released on 27 February.
The First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product released a month before upcoming Budget was important and keenly awaited as it serve as the base for Budget 2026 calculations
The real gross value added (GVA) is projected to rise 7.3% in FY26 and services sector remains the key growth engine, according to MoSPI.
"Buoyant Growth in Services Sector has been found to be a major driver in the estimated Real GVA growth rate of 7.3% in FY 2025-26," the government data said.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: Services sector emerges key driver, agriculture sector growth moderates
The government data showed that buoyant growth in the Services Sector has been identified as a major driver of the estimated Real GVA growth rate of 7.3% in FY 2025-26.
While the agriculture and allied sector saw a slow growth of 3.1% in the same period. Similarly, the Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services Sector also saw a moderate 2.1% growth in GVA at Constant Prices during FY 2025-26.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: Manufacturing growth at 7%, Financial and Defence sector rises 9.9%
As per the data, Manufacturing and Construction in the Secondary Sector have been estimated to achieve a growth rate of 7 % at Constant Prices in FY 2025-26.
Further, Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services and Public Administration, Defence & Other Services in the Tertiary Sector have been estimated to attain a substantial growth rate of 9.9% at Constant Prices in FY 2025-2
First advance estimates of FY26 GDP at 7.4%.
Nominal GDP is estimated to grow at 8.0%.
Acuité Ratings & Research pegs FY26 GDP growth to 7.2%. “Taking into account the continued positive surprise in the GDP data along with lower-than-expected inflation in recent months, we mark up our FY26 GDP growth estimate to 7.2% from 6.6% earlier,” Acuité Ratings & Research revised its FY26 GDP forecast after Q2 GDP was released.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: SBI Capital Markets pegs FY26 real GDP growth at over 7%
SBI Capital Markets pegs FY26 real GDP growth at over 7%
“An above-normal monsoon, buoyancy in the services sector, GST rate rationalisation and strong construction activity have accelerated growth momentum despite trade tariff uncertainty and selective private sector capex. Risks remain evenly balanced as we expect FY26 real GDP growth to be over 7%, with a slight moderation in H2. Nominal GDP will remain challenged in FY26 as inflation sinks, and we expect a ~8.5% y/y figure,” SBI Capital Markets said in a report released after India published its Q2 GDP data.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: BoB pegs FY26 GDP growth at 7.4%–7.6%
Bank of Baroda pegs Full-year GDP growth for FY26 is expected in the range of 7.4%–7.6%.
Bank of Baroda noted, "While growth indicators remain largely on track, challenges remain due to the adverse external environment. Exports to the US are showing signs of deceleration after the tariff took effect, which is a cause of concern as there can be a drag on growth in the near-term. However, this is likely to be offset to some extent by the continued strength in services exports."
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) has pegged India’s real GDP growth at 7.4% and nominal GDP growth at 9% for the current fiscal, according to PTI.
For FY27, Ind-Ra has projected GDP growth at 6.9%, citing reforms such as GST, income-tax cuts and new trade pacts as key growth drivers that will help shield the economy from global turbulence.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: CRISIL forecasts GDP to grow 7% in FY26
CRISIL expects India’s gross domestic product to grow 7% in FY26. The rating agency has revised its forecast after India’s GDP hit 8.2% in Q2 FY26, the fastest pace in six quarters. However, it expects GDP growth to moderate to 6.7% in the next fiscal year.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: RBI pegs FY26 GDP growth at 7.3%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its December Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting forecasted FY26 GDP growth at 7.3%.
READ MORE: RBI’s big move: 6 game-changing takeaways you can’t miss – From 25 bps rate cut to Rs 1 trillion liquidity boost
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: Budget 2026 is on February 1
The Union Budget 2026 is set to be tabled in Parliament on February 1. This year, February 1 falls on a Sunday, which has led to some apprehension. However, there has been no official announcement to the contrary, and the expectation is that the Budget will follow tradition, with preparations underway for a February 1 presentation. Budget preparations are in progress, with the finance ministry holding consultations with key industry bodies and ministers from various sectors. This will be followed by the Halwa ceremony, which marks the start of the final and confidential phase of Union Budget preparation.
Read more: Will FM Present Budget on Sunday? Check 1999 precedent and why Feb 1 remains key
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: Why today’s GDP estimates matter for Budget 2026
India’s first advance estimate of FY26 GDP will serve as the base for Budget 2026 calculations. The estimate guides assumptions on nominal GDP growth, which in turn determines the fiscal deficit room and expected tax collections.
GDP Estimates FY26 Live Updates: FY26 GDP First Advance Estimates Due Today
Greetings! Welcome to this live blog.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to release the first advance estimate of India’s FY26 GDP today. We will bring you all the updates, expectations, and analysts’ views on this crucial GDP data, which will form the basis for the upcoming Union Budget 2026.