Can US higher education survive without international students?

Without immigrants, international students, and the children of immigrants, the undergraduate student population in America would be almost 5 million students smaller in 2037 than 2022, or about two-thirds of its current size, while the graduate student population would be at least 1.1 million students smaller, or only about 60% of its current size.

National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) in a study found that immigrants, international students, and the children of immigrants can make a significant difference in the fate of U.S. colleges and universities, jobs connected to those institutions, educational offerings for U.S. students, and whether America’s college-educated workforce grows. The study emphasizes how immigrant-linked populations have a profound and wide-ranging effect on the competitiveness and vibrancy of American higher education.

Losing up to one-third of undergraduate enrollment and almost two-fifths of graduate enrollment would be catastrophic for many colleges and universities, especially those in parts of the United States already experiencing demographic declines.

It would likely lead to many colleges and universities closing, resulting in fewer educational opportunities for U.S. students, fewer higher education-related jobs in many states and towns, and fewer college-educated workers in the United States.

Due to the post-2007 drop in birth rates, the number of U.S.-born traditional college-age young adults is expected to start dropping in 2025. Projections indicate that the U.S.-born college-going population could fall by 15% between 2025 and 2029 alone.

The estimates in the NFAP report reflect the growing share of students at U.S. colleges and universities who are international students, immigrants, or the children of immigrants.

Those estimates include the following components:

If international students no longer came to the United States, total undergraduate student enrollment would be at least 2% smaller and graduate student enrollment at least 11% smaller over 2025-2037.

If all new immigrant inflows ceased, including international students, those drops would be about 1 to 2% bigger.

If all immigrants currently living in the United States were to leave, undergraduate student enrollment would fall by another 6.6% and graduate student enrollment by about 12%.

And if the children of immigrants current living in the United States did not attend U.S. colleges or universities, undergraduate student enrollment would plummet by almost 23% and graduate student enrollment by about 16% over 2025-2037.

Data from the Institute of International Education’s (IIE) Open Doors Report indicate that U.S. higher education institutions enrolled over 880,000 international students in 2023-24, an increase of more than 230,000 students, or 36%, since 2010-11.

International students have a substantial positive impact on U.S. higher education. As public funding for universities falls, public universities tend to increase their number of international students. Doing so enables them to maintain or even reduce in-state students’ tuition and fees. Master’s programs typically cross-subsidize programs at other levels.

International students who remain in the country make valuable contributions to the U.S. economy, including spurring entrepreneurship and innovation. Master’s programs with more foreign students result in more businesses being created by graduates of those programs.

Higher education is the main entry channel for immigrants who have become entrepreneurs – 75% of immigrants who have founded U.S. companies that received venture capital funding attended a U.S. college or university. International graduate students boost U.S. innovation, as measured by patents and publications.

International students are an important source of workers, particularly in the high-tech sector. About 23% of international students who earn a master’s degree remain in the United States after graduation to work in the same state as the university they attended, and about 8% of bachelor’s degree recipients.

The drop in international students during the pandemic likely reduced the number of foreign-born graduates with STEM degrees from U.S. colleges and universities working in the country by 30,000 to 60,000 workers.

Over 242,000 international students were doing OPT during 2023-24, versus fewer than 41,000 in 2006-07, according to IIE data. The number of international students doing OPT rose considerably after the 12-month work period was extended by 17 months for STEM majors in 2008, additional STEM majors were added in 2012, and the STEM extension was further increased to the current 24 months in 2016.

The origins of international students have shifted in recent years, particularly in the post-pandemic period. India overtook China as the largest source country in 2023-24, according to IIE data. India accounted for almost 30% of international students that year, and China for 25%.