The number of Indian students heading to the United States to pursue higher education is likely to drop by 20-25% for the fall 2025 semester, as compared to the year-ago period, in what could dampen the aspirations of thousands.
According to “study-abroad” platforms in India, a near-month-long freeze on US visa appointments that included consulates in India, and increasing concerns over the impending future of Optional Practical Training (OPT) have contributed to a fewer number of Indian students opting for “fall admissions”.
Visa Pause Hit Peak Application Window
Experts said that the pause on student visa appointments during a critical period – May 27 to June 18 –ended up leaving many Indian students in the dark as they would not know whether their applications were going to be cleared in time for their intended academic programme. “The disruption’s greatest impact was felt in areas where student density is the high such as Delhi, Mumbai and Hyderabad. These consulates are significantly busier in processing applications between early June and mid-July,” said Mamta Jani, founder of Ontrack Education.
The forecast is consistent with the 2025 US visa data. For instance, the F-1 visa issuances fell by 12% between January to April 2025, and in May alone they plunged 22% compared to the same month last year. “The visa pause disrupted tens of thousands of Indian candidates, and despite services resuming, slot availability remains limited,” said Karunn Kandoi, founder and CEO of Vidysea Education.
The May-July is usually the peak season for F1 visa appointments as international students apply for fall admissions of the major universities in the US. Nearly 70% of international student visas are issued during this period.
OPT Uncertainty Raises Financial Risks
At the same time, a cloud of uncertainty looms over OPT, a hugely popular programme for international students to work in the US in a field related to their major for a temporary duration. In April, a new bill was introduced in the US House of Representatives, named HR 2315, that aims to eliminate the OPT programme for international students on F-1 visas. Just last month, the Dignity Act of 2025 was introduced by US lawmakers that could make the earnings made by OPT foreign workers subject to an additional tax.
“This is particularly alarming for Indian students who rely on loans with a hope that OPT would be used as critical industry experience and typically the only way to recoup their international tuition, which is egregiously high,” said Jani.
“The continued uncertainty over OPT has made students and families more cautious – leading many to defer or cancel their US plans and causing a steep decline in expected enrolments this fall,” said founder of a study abroad platform with tie-ups with US universities.
Last month, Moody’s Ratings said that the Trump administration’s restrictive policies for international students pose a financial risk to several US higher education institutions by potentially deterring students from enrolling.
To be sure, India is the biggest source market for the US universities followed by China and South Korea. In 2024, India sent 331,602 international students to the US, recording a 23% jump from the previous year and overtaking China as the largest source market for the US, as per Open Doors Report.