The diplomatic crisis between the Indian and Canadian government coupled with the restrictions in international study permit are taking a toll on the number of Indian students going to Canada for higher studies. As per various study abroad platforms, there’s expected to be a sharp 40-60% drop in the number of Indian students opting for Canada for studies over the next 12-15 months.
“The application volume for the summer and next fall session has come down drastically. In September, we have already seen 25% drop in the number of students going to Canada owing to visa restrictions. Overall, we expect 40% decline in the students taking admission in Canadian universities for the next year. The diplomatic tension is weighing heavily on the sentiments of students and parents who are looking for alternate options,” said Karunn Kandoi, founder & CEO of Vidysea Education.
However, experts said that the situation is not as bad as it seems on the diplomatic front. “For instance, the opposition party is strongly objecting to the policies of Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau. The tension between Indian and Canada is politically motivated. But because of the diplomatic staff reductions on both sides, there’s an impact on the visa processing capacity which is leading to less visa issuances,” said head of a study abroad platform on condition of anonymity.
The sharp fall in the student applications could result in the higher acceptance rates for the universities. “Since the educational institutions will face challenges in filing up seats, we expect their acceptance rate to go up by 10-20% in the next one year,” said the head quoted above.
Canada is one of the top four study abroad destinations for Indian students apart from the US, the UK and Australia. The movement of Indian students is crucial for the Canadian universities as well. For instance, 427,085 international students from India enrolled in Canadian institutes, constituting over 41% of the total international student enrolments in 2023 – the highest among all countries.
Just last month, the Canadian government had announced reduction in international study permit for three years – 2024, 2025, 2026. Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada slashed the new study permit by 35% for 2024, with further reductions of 10% for 2025 and 2026.
Meanwhile, the industry is not expecting any major impact from the US elections, even if the former president Donald Trump comes back into power. “Given his anti-immigration stance in the previous term, Trump has not said anything negative on the immigration front so far in this year’s election campaign,” said Kandoi.