The October-December quarter broadly marked a turning point for domestic IT firms, with signs of revival in discretionary spending and a healthy order book. This was met with some optimism by analysts as the quarter is seasonally a weak one due to furloughs.
While Infosys and Wipro exceeded Street expectations, TCS and HCLTech were not able to meet analysts’ forecasts. Despite robust deal wins, challenges in total contract value (TCV) conversion and sustained growth in emerging markets remain concerns for the industry.
Infosys and Wipro outperformed, buoyed by strong demand in financial services and growth in the Americas. TCS and HCLTech, however, faced seasonal weaknesses that tempered their performance. Infosys posted sequential revenue and profit growth, driven by improved demand in financial services across the US and Europe. MD & CEO Salil Parekh noted, “In the last quarter, we saw discretionary spending recover in US financial services. This quarter, we are witnessing similar trends in Europe, along with improving demand in US retail and consumer products.”
Wipro reported a minor revenue uptick, surpassing expectations due to strong demand in the Americas and the BFSI sector. CEO Srini Pallia said: “Clients are cautiously optimistic, and we’re seeing a gradual return of discretionary spending.”
Conversely, TCS missed estimates on both revenue and profit, citing seasonal Q3 weaknesses. HCLTech reported sequential growth in revenue and operating margins, but fell short of analysts’ expectations.
Despite mixed earnings, all four companies reported robust deal wins. Infosys’ large deal TCV rose marginally to $2.5 billion from $2.4 billion in Q2. Parekh highlighted increased deal activity across financial services and retail sectors. TCS reported an impressive TCV of $10.2 billion, up from $8.6 billion in Q2. CEO K Krithivasan said: “This well-rounded performance spans industries, geographies, and service lines”.
HCLTech’s total deal value decreased slightly to $2.1 billion from $2.2 billion in Q2, reflecting shorter deal tenures. CEO C Vijayakumar said: “The shift toward shorter-tenure deals is moderating TCV, but we’re seeing steady demand for AI-led transformations”.
Wipro achieved large deal wins worth nearly $1 billion, with total deal wins for the quarter at $3.51 billion.
The IT sector’s performance was underscored by easing discretionary spending in BFSI, particularly in the US. Generative AI (GenAI) adoption emerged as a critical growth driver. Infosys and TCS demonstrated resilience in the BFSI sector, with Infosys highlighting improved European demand. TCS maintained strong BFSI traction despite minor quarterly declines. HCLTech and Wipro noted moderate drops in BFSI revenue, but echoed optimism about discretionary spending recovery.
All firms reported significant investments in GenAI. HCLTech highlighted transformative benefits, noting an 85% cost reduction in large language models. Vijayakumar said, “GenAI is central to innovation and operational efficiency”.
TCS and Infosys delivered consistent performance across regions. HCLTech saw growth in the Americas, while Wipro faced challenges in Europe, which Pallia attributed to cost optimisation pressures.
With discretionary spending showing signs of recovery, IT firms remain cautiously optimistic about FY26. Both Infosys and HCLTech revised their revenue guidance upward, reflecting improved demand visibility. Infosys increased FY25 growth projections to 4.5%-5.0% (from 3.75%-4.5%), while HCLTech narrowed its guidance to 4.5%-5.0% (from 3.5%-5.0%). Wipro’s Q4 growth outlook improved to (-1%) to 1%.
Infosys and Wipro plan to hire 20,000 and 10,000-12,000 employees, respectively, in FY26. HCLTech indicated it expects increased hiring compared to FY25. Attrition rates rose across firms but remained within manageable levels.
Despite positive signs, industry leaders are vigilant about the risks. Shorter deal tenures and challenges in converting TCV into sustained revenue growth could temper optimism. Additionally, sustained growth in emerging markets and Europe remains a hurdle.