– By Group Captain Praveer Purohit (retd)

Two things have soared in India this summer- the heat and the election fervour. With claims and counter-claims by various political parties having garnered most of the media space, the fact that the border crisis in East Ladakh initiated by China completes four years with no sign of China de-escalating seems to have been ‘lost’ in the election din. Disconcerting reports of significant naval developments in China and Pakistan have also been largely swept away by the election fever that has gripped India.

On April 26, the first of the eight Hangor class submarines contracted by the Pakistan Navy (PN) was launched in Wuhan, China. The launching ceremony is a formal custom celebrating a boat being transferred to the water for the first time. The deal for these submarines was inked during the visit of President Xi Jinping to Pakistan in 2015. Four of the eight are being built in China, while the rest are being built in Karachi, Pakistan. The project was delayed due to the refusal of Germany to supply the MTV 396 diesel engines for these submarines. These boats (submarines are called ‘boats’ in naval parlance) are the export variant of the Chinese Navy Type 039 Yuan class boats. 76 metres long and displacing 2800 tons, the Hangor class submarines are bigger than the latest Kalvari class (Scorpene) submarines that the Indian Navy (IN) has in its fleet. Although details of the weapon systems on board the Hangor class boats are not available, it is speculated that they could be equipped with the 450 km range Babur-3 Submarine Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM). The submarines are equipped with an Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system that gives them the ability to remain submerged for as long as 10 to 14 days. This will significantly enhance the operational capability and ‘sea-denial’ ability of the PN. Realising the importance of AIP, the PN retrofitted an AIP onto its three Agosta 90B submarines between 2008 and 2011. Of the four boats being constructed in Pakistan, the keel laying ceremony of the second boat (and sixth overall) was held in Karachi on 14 February. Thus, despite some delays, the Hangor project seems to be picking pace.

India’s 30-year (2000-2030) submarine-building plan envisioned two parallel lines of six conventional submarines to be constructed in India over twelve years. This was to be followed by 12 submarines of indigenous design to be constructed over the next twelve years. Laudable as the plan was, its implementation has been tardy. The grim reality is that today, the IN has only 16 conventional submarines, with 11 of these being inducted between 1986 and 2000. None of the submarines in IN have AIP. Although DRDO is reportedly working on developing AIP, former naval chief Admiral Arun Prakash is quoted as saying, “It would take another seven to ten years before India has AIP submarines”. Project 75 I to construct AIP submarines has been plagued by unpardonable indecision and inexplicable delays, reflecting poorly on our higher defence management.

More recently, China sailed its third (and biggest) aircraft carrier ‘Fujian’ for sea trials on May 01. This ship was launched in 2022 and displaces about 80000 tons. Equipped with the state-of-the-art Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS), the Chinese Navy (PLAN) is only the second navy after the U.S. Navy to possess this capability. The Fujian is expected to enter service by the end of 2025/ early 2026, bolstering the PLAN’s capability for extended power projection. The 2023 annual report on China’s military by the Pentagon estimates the current PLAN submarine fleet of 60 boats to increase to about 80 by 2035. PLAN submarines have increasingly forayed into the Indian Ocean. Analysis of humongous shipping data by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that the Indian Ocean has become one of the biggest domains for Chinese oceanic surveys, gathering crucial undersea data that has applications in submarine warfare. The so-called Chinese ‘research vessels’ have deep links to the Chinese military and, under the guise of ‘civilian activity’, are engaged in extensive mapping of the Indian Ocean seabed, currents, salinity and such factors that are crucial in submarine warfare. The PLAN is also feverishly working on developing suitable underwater capability in the form of Unmanned Undersea Vessels (UUV) and sensors. China has made no bones about its intention to project maritime power in the Indian Ocean and is doing it in a focused manner.

The recent naval developments in the PN and PLAN should not be looked at in isolation from each other. Given the strong ties and collaboration between China and Pakistan, the PLAN-PN combine has the potential to pose serious impediments to the IN. Low budgetary allocation to defence in general and the navy in particular is bad enough. Making matters worse is the snail-like pace of our acquisitions and procrastination on crucial decisions such as Project 75 I and the third aircraft carrier. The government ought to act on the sage advice of Admiral Arun Prakash, who has recommended collaborating with France on constructing a nuclear-powered next-generation aircraft carrier. Of late, despite its stellar operational achievements, the Indian Navy seemed to garner avoidable headlines for changes in its uniforms and customs under the misplaced guise of “shedding colonial practices”. The new naval chief has rightly articulated the centrality of and focus on operations. He has his task cut out. Since no major decision can be expected during the election season, one will have to wait till a new government is formed after the elections. The new government must tackle the China challenge with an ‘Arjun-like’ focus. Claiming ‘All is well’ may sound good in a Bollywood movie but appears hollow in the face of the strategic challenge posed by China. Considerable time has been lost in grandstanding and chest-thumping. There is no place for hubris, and we need to learn from ancient Greek mythology that “Hubris invites Nemesis”.          

The author is a former IAF officer with extensive operational experience and exposure to joint planning for operations. He has also served with the Indian Navy.

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