The recent resignation of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s long-serving prime minister, and her subsequent move to India highlight the close relationship between the two nations. Hasina led Bangladesh, a country of 170 million people, for nearly 15 years until student protests against civil service quotas escalated into a widespread and violent anti-government movement, resulting in at least 280 deaths in clashes with police.

Consequences for India

The ongoing political unrest in Bangladesh has important consequences for India, which has a strong interest in the country’s stability and security as a neighbouring nation. Concerns such as the rise of extremist groups, an influx of refugees, and possible cross-border tensions require careful management by India. Additionally, other regional powers like China and Russia are observing India’s response to the situation, having remained largely silent so far. In the fiscal year 2023-24, bilateral trade between the two countries reached USD 14.01 billion.

Black Shadow Effects on India: In June, Hasina made two visits to India within a fortnight—first to attend Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath-taking ceremony and then for a two-day state visit, marking the first visit by a head of government to India following Modi’s coalition’s third consecutive electoral victory. “While India has maintained strong diplomatic ties with Bangladesh, characterized by numerous visits from Hasina to New Delhi, the recent developments call for a reassessment of India’s strategy. A stable and friendly government in Dhaka is essential for India’s regional security and economic interests,” experts opine.


Geographically & Strategically: Bangladesh plays a crucial role in the region, sharing land borders with Myanmar and India. It has three out of the twelve ports in the Bay of Bengal—Chattogram, Mongla, and Payra—making it a key link between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Consequently, any regional collaboration involving major trade blocs like ASEAN and SAARC must include Bangladesh. The country is also an important geopolitical partner for India, as it can enhance connectivity between Northeast and Central India.

On the flip side: Bangladesh is also a very strong candidate for collaboration with China in the proposed “String of Pearls” strategy and the development of the “Maritime Silk Road.” This potential partnership has not gone unnoticed by China’s Western rivals, including India, which have begun to strengthen their ties with Bangladesh. This shift has transformed Bangladesh from a nation of geopolitical insignificance to a significant player in shaping Asia’s future.

In terms of proxy war game

“Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as the most successful Islamic organization in establishing a solid social and political base in Bangladesh. With branches in multiple countries, it has garnered international support, and its alliance with the BNP has further solidified its position within the predominantly Muslim community in Bangladesh,” explains Prof (Dr) Nishakant Ojha, Advisor Cyber & Aerospace Security & Eminent Expert-Counter Terrorism (West Asia & Middle East).

In an exclusive conversation with FinancialExpress.com, Dr Ojha says: “It’s important to remember that the Razakars, who were created by the Pakistani military to gain local support and intelligence, were primarily Urdu-speaking migrants who came to East Pakistan from present-day India during the partition. They served as an auxiliary force to help suppress the rebellion in the East.”

However, in his view Jamaat-e-Islami has faced backlash from minority communities due to its negative impact on their lives. The organization might have been able to endure this resentment if it hadn’t aligned itself with Pakistan during the 1971 liberation war. “Given the current circumstances in Bangladesh, it seems that the past has caught up with Jamaat-e-Islami, and its future appears bleak. With many of its leaders and financial backers gone, the organization’s foundation has been severely weakened. It would take a significant turn of events for Jamaat-e-Islami to reintegrate into Bangladesh’s political and social landscape. Nonetheless, we cannot overlook the potential proxy support from China and Pakistan, which could help establish a stable government aligned with their strategic interests, potentially affecting India in terms of both economic and security matters.”

What led to the violence?

The term “Rajakar” has become synonymous with collaborators and anti-liberation forces, often viewed as pro-Pakistan. Bangladesh has not experienced such violence since its liberation war in 1971, leading to the belief that establishing an interim government could be the most effective solution to restore order in the country promptly.

According to Dr Ojha, “The violence in Bangladesh is driven by a mix of internal dissent, external interference, and a discontented political opposition, leading to ongoing instability, even though the Supreme Court has already addressed the issue of job quotas in government.

US Sanctions RAB

In December 2021, the US imposed sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and several of its officials, as this elite paramilitary unit has been accused of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings for the government.

A year later, US Ambassador Peter Haas met with families of victims of these alleged abuses under Prime Minister Hasina’s administration. In February, Derek Chollet from the US State Department cautioned Dhaka that democratic backsliding could hinder American cooperation and urged Hasina to ensure free and fair elections. Hasina responded by accusing the US of attempting to overthrow her government.

China & BRI

Meanwhile, China has made significant investments in Bangladesh, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, funding 90% of new energy projects in the country. This has led to US scepticism regarding Hasina’s ties with China.

While the Biden administration has criticized democratic regression in Bangladesh, it has continued to prioritize short-term geopolitical interests in Pakistan.

In 2021, the US designated the RAB and several of its leaders as complicit in serious human rights abuses related to the war on drugs, freezing their US assets. “Central to the unrest is the Jamaat-e-Islami’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), which Indian intelligence suggests has received substantial financial support from the ISI, with some funding traced back to Chinese companies in Pakistan or directly from Beijing,” he explains.

Role of Radical Islamist Groups

“Radical Islamist groups like Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (Huji) have also contributed to the unrest, allegedly inciting violence and anti-India sentiment, with the Jamaat-e-Islami and ICS using the guise of advocating for democracy and human rights to gain international support.

This turmoil has led to rising demands for independence and attacks on minorities in Bangladesh, creating a precarious situation that raises concerns about the country’s future stability and its relations with India,” he states