By Air Cmde TK Chatterjee (retd)
On 24 Feb 2022, Russia commenced the “special military ops” in Ukraine, and the world got engrossed in the Russo-Ukraine war. It existed in the world media headlines for almost a year and then slowly retreated to the back pages. Then came 7 Oct 2023 and all eyes turned to the Middle East and the world media had a fresh conflict centre to report and comment upon. Like the Ukraine war, this will inevitably be another long-drawn conflict and grab eyeballs until the next one flares up somewhere else.
Editorials and opinion makers have laid down the responsibility of starting the currently ongoing conflicts on various personalities, groups, or events. But a straight-thinking military mind, that does not walk a crooked mile, blames the side that creates conditions of a conflict, enters into it, and then lands up on the losing side. That shows an utter lack of foresight. The rule is very simple: do not start a war that you cannot win.
For example, in 1971, when the Pakistani authorities commenced a genocide in the erstwhile East Pakistan, they invited conflict. By doing a preemptive strike on India, they entered the conflict and ended up with the biggest surrender in the history of modern warfare. Similar is the case with the Ukraine war. In 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea, and the world watched, Henry Kissinger, in his article in the Washington Post, advised Ukraine not to join NATO but to be a bridge between Russia and the West. Sane advice was ignored and drowned in the jingoism of calls to join NATO and here they are now having lost one-third of Ukraine to Russia and with no hope of recovering it in the foreseeable future. Now we have Hamas poking a tiger called Israel. Knowing the reputation of Israel of disproportionate response to provocations, or even hints of provocations, they went ahead with the inhuman massacre on 7 Oct and are now pleading with the world to force Israel into a ceasefire. A ceasefire without releasing the Israeli hostages will be a victory for Hamas, as seen by the Palestinians; and a defeat for Israel, as seen by the Israelis. Does that leave any room for compromise? In all these three cases mentioned above, where does the blame for initiating a conflict lie?
If Hamas started the conflict with Israel with the hope that the Arab world would jump into the conflict, their hopes are – in the words of Salman Rushdie – a fantasy in a drug addict’s dream. The last time some Arab nations joined up against Israel was in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. It was at the end of this war that both Israel and Egypt recognised the strengths of each other which led to the Camp David Accord of 1978. But Hamas is not Egypt and a negotiated settlement between Hamas and Israel may not happen. All that has happened to the advantage of Hamas so far is that the Saudi-Israeli rapprochement has been stalled.
Even publicising the Israeli response to this conflict as an anti-Muslim war will also not make any headway. Statistics of Muslims killing Muslims in the Middle East and Africa are easy to find and the numbers are staggeringly higher than what is happening in the Gaza Strip. Most Arab nations have over a period finally preferred peace to anti-semitic sentiments and therefore have established formal relations with Israel through the Abraham Accord. Converting this conflict, as yet limited to the Gaza Strip, into an Islam vs Jews conflict will also therefore not work since the loyalties of the brotherhood of Islam are confined to their national boundaries, guided more by national interests than pure allegiance to a religion. Faith is good but it has its limitations. The Israeli leadership knows this and hence can ignore the calls for a ceasefire.
Another school of thought is that the new Sino-Russian axis, through their proxy, Iran, is challenging the West-dominated world order through this conflict. Using Iran, the supporter of Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah, in provoking Israel to commit to a long-drawn conflict may perhaps be a way to challenge the USA in the Middle East. This Sino-Russian axis is beginning to exercise its voice by garnering the support of the so-called global South, consisting of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It is therefore time that the West take BRICS seriously, for, in the words of Shashi Tharoor – if the BRICS are not allowed to help lead within the existing global system, they will inevitably create their own.
Whatever the reason for the massacre that Hamas committed on 7 October, it has started a chain of events that will continue as yet another festering wound on this planet. If Israel has not gassed the tunnels and smoked the Hamas cadre out, it is only because of the hostages that Hamas is holding in those tunnels. But how long this tactic will save them is not certain. In the meanwhile, it has been established as a fact that there is no international body that can intervene in conflict scenarios where the big boys are playing through their proxies, be it Ukraine or Palestine. With the USA, UK, and France on one side and China, and Russia on the other side, no Security Council resolution is expected from the UNO, thanks to the veto power of either side.
So the dance of death and destruction will continue. When the enemy is not in uniform, civilian casualties are inevitable. Human rights activists can scream their hearts out but it will not change anything on the ground. It is indeed unfortunate, but the best of intentions cannot prevent it. Israel’s ultimate goal is not clear as yet. Eliminating Hamas may sound good but is not achievable. Neither is Israeli control over the Palestine Authority or whatever may be left of Hamas at the end of the conflict viable over a long time. The world will expect Israel to abide by the two-state theory, which obviates Israeli control, military or otherwise, over Palestine. And that implies that the phoenix of Hamas will rise again and history will repeat itself.
The author is an Indian Air Force Veteran.
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