Russia’s most senior generals have dropped out of public view following a failed mercenary mutiny.
After halting the mutiny, unconfirmed reports say at least one senior military commander has been arrested.
General Valery Gerasimov who is the chief of staff of the armed forces has not appeared in public or on state TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday when mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov be handed over.
Gerasimov is the commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the holder of one of Russia’s three “nuclear briefcases,” according to some Western military analysts.
Along, another top military commander from the Russian army, General Sergei Surovikin, is also absent from public view. General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by the Russian press is known for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.
A New York Times report, based on a U.S. intelligence briefing, said on Tuesday he had advance knowledge of the mutiny and that Russian authorities were checking if he was complicit.
While the Kremlin on Wednesday played down the report, saying that there would be a lot of speculation and gossip.
According to reports from Reuters, other senior officers were also being questioned by the Federal Security Service (FSB) which is the top security agencies to verify their loyalty in Russia.
However, according to Reuters, it could not be verified whether Surovikin had been arrested or was being screened, along with others, for their reliability in a more standard exercise.
Reports also indicate that the authorities were trying to weed out military personnel deemed to have shown “a lack of decisiveness” in putting down the mutiny.
Such a move, if confirmed, could alter the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine — which it calls a “special military operation” — and cause turmoil in the ranks at a time when Moscow is trying to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
It could also cement or elevate the positions of other senior military and security figures regarded as loyal.
Failed mutiny and repercussions
Some Russian and Western military and political analysts believe Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally whom Prigozhin demanded to remove Gerasimov for his failure to advance in Ukraine.
However, analysts suggest that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is now more secured in his position.
“I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something would be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, that Putin would rule in his favour,” Michael Kofman, a Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, wrote on Twitter.
“Instead, his mutiny may have ensured their continued tenure, despite being universally recognised as incompetent, and widely detested in the Russian Federation’s armed forces.”
General Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard and once Putin’s bodyguard appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men were ready to “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner.
He has spoken of the possibility of getting heavy weaponry and tanks for his forces in the wake of the mutiny.
Gerasimov was conspicuous by his absence when Putin on Tuesday thanked the army for averting a civil war, unlike Shoigu who has made several public appearances since.
Surovikin, Gerasimov’s deputy, was last seen on Saturday when he appeared in a video appealing to Prigozhin to halt his mutiny. He looked exhausted and it was unclear if he was speaking under duress.
There were unconfirmed Russian media and blogger reports on Wednesday evening that Surovikin was being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo detention facility after being arrested.
Prigozhin, who had spent months vilifying Shoigu and Gerasimov for their alleged incompetence in the Ukraine war, had frequently praised Surovikin who is widely respected in the army for his experience in Chechnya and Syria.
Surovikin, who did a stint as overall commander of the Ukraine war before Gerasimov was appointed to take over, is regarded by Western military analysts as an effective operator.
Surovikin is also seen by Russian war correspondents as a potential future defence minister.