Venezuela is not going to war over the Essequibo dispute with Guyana

Ambassador R Viswanathan

“The authoritarian Venezuelan regime of President Maduro is about to invade the small democratic Guyana” is a typical headline in the war mongering western media these days.

Venezuela is not going to invade and occupy the disputed Essequibo region of Guyana to enforce its claim.

 The country cannot afford a war at this time, … in the coming days, months or even years. 

Any invasion or war on the part of Venezuela will be a collective suicide for President Maduro and his Generals and destruction of the country. 

The Venezuelan threats are pure rhetoric – Just bark, no bite 

The Venezuelans know that war on the Essequibo issue will be not with Guyana but with the US which is waiting eagerly to bomb Caracas with cruise missiles in the name of supporting Guyana. President Maduro will end up like Saddam Hussein and Venezuela will be destroyed like Iraq. The Americans will not fight Venezuela in Essequibo. They will bring the war to Caracas, the capital. The first American bomb will be dropped on the Presidential palace. 

Venezuela does not have the military capacity or the right circumstances to enforce its claim on the disputed territory. The American sanctions have crippled and strangulated the country severely. The Venezuelan military is at its weakest at this time with outdated weapons and lack of spare parts. Secondly, the top officers of the armed forces have been completely corrupted by civilian positions and political involvement in the last two decades. The officers of the armed forces do not have the discipline or commitment or even the will to fight a war.

On the other hand, Guyana, a small country of 800,000 people, does not have a large or strong armed forces. So they have no option but to seek the help of the US for defence against Venezuela. The Guyanese are already in touch with the US government which has happily and enthusiastically agreed to come to the rescue. The US Special Forces are already in Guyana to coordinate defence strategies. 

The company which has invested billions of dollars in the exploration and production of oil in Guyana is Exxon Mobil, an American oil company. This will be another American excuse to intervene against Venezuela. 

The American media has hyped the Venezuela-Guyana border dispute as an imminent threat to Guyana and as a flash point for instability in the Latin American and Caribbean region. This is a distortion of reality being deliberately disseminated to make a case for US intervention in Venezuela. The US is also looking for shooting of their next episode of war serial to succeed the Ukraine and Gaza wars. Their Ukraine war is reaching a stalemate and the Gaza war has become a horror show with daily death and destruction of innocent civilians and buildings. 

The US has made several attempts in the past to overthrow President Chavez and later Maduro and continues its covert attempts even now. So if the Venezuelan army moves into the disputed area of Guyana, the US will pounce on the opportunity. The US will kill all the top Venezuelan government and military leaders or take them to US jails or hand them over to the International Criminal Court. The Venezuelan opposition parties would be thrilled to join the persecution of the members of the Maduro regime. 

Although the US has recently loosened some of the sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports, the Americans have not removed the sanctions and bounties on President Maduro and the top political, military and judicial heads of Venezuela. The US bounty on Maduro himself is 15 million dollars. The US courts have indicted Maduro and members of his government on trumped up charges of drug trafficking and money laundering. 

So why has Maduro raised the claim on Essequibo now? 

The Venezuelan referendum held last week and the announcement of follow up measures to claim the disputed Essequibo region have been done by President Maduro’s government only to drum up patriotic feelings and gain support for the reelection of Maduro in the upcoming elections in 2024. President Maduro is using the border issue to divert the attention of the people away from the economic misery and the political crisis of the country. In fact, there was no need for holding the referendum to confirm the claim on Essequibo. The Venezuelan government could have taken whatever action on its claim even without the referendum. 

President Maduro might even use the issue to postpone the elections claiming that the country is not ready to hold elections in view of the emergency issue of the border dispute facing the country. 

Thirdly, President Maduro knows that the US will threaten Venezuela in the name of supporting Guyana. He will then claim that the country faces a larger imperialist threat from the United States. He will mobilize the people with anti-US protests and brand his internal political opponents as agents of the enemy.  

The Essequibo dispute is an old and complicated issue inherited from British colonialism, like many other colonial-era disputes in other parts of the world. Venezuela has long maintained that a decision taken in 1899 by an international arbitral tribunal to award it to Britain, the colonial power which at the time ruled over Guyana, was unfair.

The matter is currently before the International Court of Justice, although Venezuela has disputed the international court’s authority to rule on the Essequibo dispute. 

In any case, Venezuela does not need the oil from the disputed region for its economic survival or prosperity. Already, the country has the world’s largest oil reserves. It is not able to produce and export enough oil due to mismanagement and American sanctions. The current production is about 800,000 barrels per day while the country was producing over three million bpd before the sanctions. 

There is one more external factor. Even if the Venezuelan government wants to escalate the issue, Brazilian President Lula will not allow them to give an excuse for the US to invade Venezuela. Brazil is even more concerned about intervention of US in Venezuela with which it shares a border. Brazil wants to keep US far away from its border and avoid the danger of an American military base in Guyana in the name of protection. So President Lula who supports the leftist Maduro government will prevail on Caracas not try any adventure which will invite US intervention. Venezuela needs the political support of Brazil now more than ever since the ruling regime is isolated and stigmatized as an authoritarian regime without democratic legitimacy. 

 So, there is no real danger of Venezuelan invasion for Guyana. The Guyanese can peacefully continue their ongoing oil production and become more prosperous in the coming years. The country’s oil revenues and economy will not be adversely impacted by Venezuela’s empty threats.

The author is a retired Indian Diplomat and an expert on Latin America and former ambassador to Venezuela.

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