Based on the media reports, Russia has posted almost 190,000 troops which are amassed near Ukraine’s borders. Late Monday (Feb 21, 2022), Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree which recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent. This means that Russia no longer recognizes the Minsk Peace Agreements of 2014-15.

What are the breakaway regions?

Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are backed by Russian-backed separatists. These two regions collectively are known as the Donbass. These regions which had broken away from Ukrainian government control in 2014, called themselves as independent “people’s republics’’ and until yesterday (Feb 21, 2022) remained unrecognized.

While Ukraine has claimed that 15,000 people have been killed in fighting, Russia has denied being party to the conflict. However, reports in the public domain indicate that Russia has supported the separatists in several ways including financial support, covert military help, as well as helping fight the global pandemic of COVID-19 by providing vaccines.

Reports also suggest that around 800,000 Russian passports have been issued to the separatists.

Recognition – what does it mean?

Russia has been denying that it has any plans to invade Ukraine. After issuing a decree recognizing Donbass has possibly paved the way for Russia to send in its forces only in Donbass. These forces could be used by the separatists to fight against the Ukrainian forces to get back parts of their Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Minsk Peace Process: what is it?

Under the Minsk Peace accords, it has called for autonomy of the two regions inside Ukraine. However, these agreements of 2014-15 remain unimplemented.

Has Russia ever recognized breakaway statelets before?

Yes. In 2008, after a short war with Georgia, it recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These are two Georgian breakaway regions. After recognizing them, Moscow provided Russian citizenship to the locals there as well as extensive budgetary support.

Pros and Cons for Moscow?

The short war with Georgia and subsequent recognition to two breakaway regions helped Moscow justify its presence there. This was in an effort to ensure that Georgia does not join NATO. And the same is now expected to happen in Ukraine.

Will it lead to sanctions from the European Union and the West?

The reports indicate that the West and EU are considering imposing sanctions on Moscow for not following the Minsk Peace process. And this also means that Russia will end up being burdened with providing economic and other support to the new regions.