By Ranjit Kumar

Three years after China violated the Line of Actual Control in the Eastern Ladakh sector of Sino-Indian un-demarcated border, both countries still find themselves sitting on powder keg, which China wants India to accept the situation as normal and develop cooperative ties with China , and forget current situation on LAC as “minor issues” compared to other global issues on which Dragon and elephant should work together. Irrespective of its misdeeds on the LAC, China has been pontificating India to develop friendly relations for common benefit of the people of both ancient civilizations.

With over 50,000 army personnel deployed on each side of LAC, the situation can’t be described as less than explosive. Indian Army Chief General Manoj Pandey described the situation as stable but unpredictable, indicating that the situation can any time go out of control resulting in big conflagration between two world nuclear powers.

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To resolve the issue, 18 rounds of army commander’s level talks and under WMCC ( Working mechanism for consultation and coordination on India China border affairs) format almost similar rounds of dialogues have been held , which has yielded some results , but far away from satisfying India. In early May, 2020 Chinese PLA intruded into Galwan valley, North and South Banks of Pangong lake and Gogra-HotSprings area. WMCC dialogues are headed by Joint Secretary level diplomats from both sides, which gives direction to their respective military commanders. However either there seems to be a disconnect between Chinese diplomats and PLA commanders or the Chinese are speaking with double voice. In fact doublespeak has been a hallmark of Chinese leadership, who follow the precept and teachings of Sun Tzu, the renowned 500 BC Chinese strategist and author of Art of War , the widely acclaimed treatise on warfare.Through these tactics the Chinese easily keep the enemy guessing.

India has been emphasizing on the return of status quo on the LAC, as the situation prevailed till April. 2020, but China was not eager to accept this demand. On the other hand the Chinese ambassador in New Delhi kept saying that both the countries should meet halfway to resolve the issues. That meant concessions to China, allowing the PLA to retain some of the intruded areas. Though the Chinese agreed to withdraw to LAC on incursion areas, but on certain conditions like creating a buffer zone on the Indian side of LAC. First such agreement was reached for Galwan valley, in early June, 2020 , where Chinese displayed their true colours. When the Indian army jawans went to the Galwan peak for inspection from where the Chinese agreed to dismantle their structures, the PLA soldiers backstabbed the unarmed Indian soldiers with sharp and barbed objects. The scuffle resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers , whereas the Chinese have accepted the death of only four soldiers.

After June 15-16, 2020 Galwan deception, India and China raised the level of talks to minister level. Taking advantage of the SCO meets in Moscow , a meeting was organised on Chinese insistence with Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh on September 04 , during which the Chinese defence minister Feng laid the blame on India for the LAC situation. However, only five days later , on 10th Sept, 2020 during the SCO foreign ministers meeting, the then Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a very positive and forward looking meeting with Indian External Affairs minister Dr S.Jaishankar . During this meeting a five point consensus was reached in which the Chinese foreign minister accepted the need for peace on the border for cordial relations. The five point consensus is as follows-

1. The two Ministers agreed that both sides should take guidance from the series of consensus of the leaders on developing India-China relations, including not allowing differences to become disputes.

2. The two Foreign Ministers agreed that the current situation in the border areas is not in the interest of either side. They agreed therefore that the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions.

3. The two Ministers agreed that both sides shall abide by all the existing agreements and protocol on China-India boundary affairs, maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas and avoid any action that could escalate matters.

4. The two sides also agreed to continue to have dialogue and communication through the Special Representative mechanism on the India-China boundary question. They also agreed in this context that the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs (WMCC), should also continue its meetings.

5. The Ministers agreed that as the situation eases, the two sides should expedite work to conclude new Confidence Building Measures to maintain and enhance peace and tranquillity in the border areas.

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This consensus statement clearly laid out the future course of action to bring the situation back to normal. But the Chinese PLA never agreed to implement this on ground. The Chinese , though, agreed to disengage from both the banks of Pangong lake, and Gogra – Hotsprings region , but after many rounds of tough, long and intense bargaining. The Galwan formula of creating buffer zones was also applied on these LAC incursion points. The Indian army was restricted from patrolling these buffer zones created within the Indian area on LAC.

China retained its upper hand in these concluded negotiations but the real test of Indian diplomacy will be seen for negotiating Chinese withdrawal from Depsang and Demchok regions. PLA has entered 18 kms inside the Depsang plains and not only blocked the patrolling by Indian soldiers but also prevented the herdsmen from roaming around with their animals. The Depsang area is near Daulat Beg Oldi , a place of great strategic importance for India. The Chinese want to block easy access to this area as it overlooks the China-Pakistan Karakoram highway , the China Pakistan Economic corridor and Gilgit Baltistan region under Pakistan occupation , where China has grabbed 5000 sq kms of area in Shaksgam valley. Hence they are adamant and not even discussing this issue with Indian interlocutors.

Obviously, India can’t surrender the intruded areas in Depsang and Demchok, That means , Indian army will continue to be deployed on the entire eastern Ladakh LAC for an indefinite period. It will prove to be a big drain not only on the Indian economy but also deplete the military resources.

Over the last three years, this act of treachery by the PLA soldiers has enraged not only the Indian masses, but the government also took strong note of this by banning over hundred Chinese mobile apps like world popular Tik-Tok. There was widespread resentment against everything Chinese in India, and there also were demands to ban all Chinese products in India. Since the Indian economy has over the years developed existential dependence on China , it was found not prudent to ban the sale of Chinese products in India. Because of weaknesses in the Indian economy many sectors like Pharmaceutical, auto, electronics industry etc are dependent on Chinese supplied essential ingredients and components. Banning Chinese products in India meant banning trade with China , which would have serious economic implications for India. In spite of continued Chinese intransigence , the bilateral trade has shot up to US$ 135 billion out of which China’s exports were over US$ 100 billion. This shows the compulsions and predicament India faces in taking a tougher policy in dealing with the Dragon nation.

The author is a Senior Journalist and Strategic Affairs Analyst.

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