The Belt and Road Initiative: A decade of Economic Progress and Ecological Pitfalls

By Ayushi Saini

As the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative celebrated its 10^th anniversary in 2023, it is crucial to analyze the economic development it brings and at what cost. Despite being promised as a green initiative, there is a significant environmental toll that ecologically disadvantaged countries are already suffering from due to the heavy industrial development led by BRI.

Introduction:

The Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 by Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan at Nazarbayev University. It was an attempt by China to revive the Old Silk Road which was being used by traders 2000 years ago during the Han dynasty, to connect China with the Mediterranean via Eurasia. It is a network of trade routes, roadways, railways, and maritime constructions. Building on from the original road, the goals of this initiative also consist of airway and port-construction projects. The BRI comprises two parts: Silk Road Economic Belt, a trans-continental passage that links China with Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Europe by land; and a 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, a sea route connecting China’s coastal regions with Southeast and South Asia, the South Pacific, the Middle East, and Eastern Africa, all the way to Europe.

The BRI not only seeks to create infrastructure but also to create an interdependent market for China to build a high-tech-based economy. Marlene Laruelle, in her book China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its Impact, argues that the “BRI is not simply the sum of individual projects centred around the idea of connecting China to the rest of the world via new continental and maritime infrastructure. Rather, it is a metadiscourse on the Silk Road and a new manifestation of China’s soft power, of its “peaceful” and “multilateral” rise.” The BRI, which has helped enhance the economy of the Central Asian region, impacts the ecology of the space which disturbs human security there.

What makes BRI crucial to Central Asia?

The five land-locked central Asian countries- Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan- are the highest recipients of Chinese BRI investment. Each of these shares substantial borders with China along with having high volumes of trade with it. This explains the intensity and volume of infrastructure projects increasing in Central Asia resulting in the region becoming vulnerable to changing political influence and climatic conditions. The central Asian space is central to the geo-economic ambitions of China, and the only way for accessing the European markets.

The sea route bypasses the Malacca Strait to pass through Southeast Asia and feeds into the Indian Ocean. Pakistan is one of the most significant countries for the success of this Chinese initiative through the proposed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC, along with the West Asia Economic Corridor, plays an important role in providing China with alternative routes of transportation and sources of energy, while also contributing to regional development and stability.

India so far has not joined the BRI due to its concerns regarding the violation of its sovereignty by China; this is despite the strong economic complementarity with the BRI objectives. As CPEC passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, New Delhi has resisted further collaboration. India was to be home to two corridors including CPEC before it withdrew its participation from both, the second being the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor.

India’s absence in the BRI draws our attention towards the importance of central Asian cooperation to the BRI’s success. The strong presence of China in Central Asia, and particularly Kazakhstan, has shifted geopolitical realities in the region with Russia being forced to give way in what was traditionally Moscow’s backyard. However, both Russia and China are united in their interests of constraining US primacy across central Asian space.

Economic Development and Sustainability Challenges:

So far, China has launched at least 112 projects in Central Asia, aimed at boosting infrastructure related to transportation and connectivity. According to a World Bank report in 2019, if fully implemented, BRI transportation projects could increase trade between 1.7 and 6.2 per cent for the world, increasing global real incomes by 0.7 to 2.9 per cent. With “connectedness” as the key aim of the initiative, the BRI has created a web of markets, boosting the cumulative exports and imports between China and central Asian countries to $70.2 billion, as of 2022. Total trade between China and its BRI partners amounted to US$19.1 trillion by the end of 2022.

Environment and Human Security- Despite these gains, economic development via BRI projects does not come without worsening the pre-existing ecological crises in Central Asia.

Central Asia, an arid and semi-arid region, faces severe environmental disruptions and stands as one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to global climate change. As of 2022, the region’s temperature is increasing faster than the global average. The drying of the Aral Sea, particularly affecting the Karakalpakstan region in Uzbekistan, exemplifies the catastrophic consequences. Kazakhstan, hosting Soviet nuclear sites since the late 1940s, like the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Site at the Irtysh River, grapples with ecological challenges from radiation. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) intensifies these issues, contributing to ecological destruction in Eastern Kazakhstan. Chinese demand for coal boosts investments in Semey’s coal-fired plants, impacting river flows. Additionally, the BRI exacerbates local unemployment and the mistreatment of labour by Chinese firms. China’s interest in Kazakhstan’s agricultural resources raises concerns, especially considering the region’s susceptibility to food insecurity due to various risk factors. Kazakhstan, as Central Asia’s largest crop producer, faces potential future food security challenges.

Persistent environmental pollution in Central Asia, exacerbated by BRI projects, particularly impacting Lake Balkhash, has led to the scarcity of fresh water, and degradation of marine life, and poses a risk of future resource scarcity due to the excessive use of raw materials in large-scale infrastructure endeavours.

Way Ahead:

Amid the ecological destruction, China is trying its hands with renewables. However, China’s commitment in 2019 to making its BRI “open, green and clean” is ironic to its refusal of Paris Club agreements as well as UNCTAD principles. The concepts of Clean Silk Road and Green Silk Road proposed by China are to show the efforts made to enhance the sustainable motives of BRI. The former is to ensure the transparent and accountable functioning of BRI to avoid corruption and malpractices, and the latter aims to carry out development sustainably to minimize environmental destruction. However, there exist challenges in the implementation. China’s recent refusal to consider further coal projects in Bangladesh is a welcome step, as is the fact that renewables have been making up the majority of new Belt and Road energy investment since 2020. However, China’s act of making partner countries sign non-disclosure agreements is an evident lacuna in making BRI “clean”.