By Dr. Gulbin Sultana
A diplomatic spat occurred between Maldives and India following derogatory and irresponsible comments made by three deputy ministers of the Muizzu administration on social media against Indian Prime Minister Modi and India. The comments caused an uproar in Indian social media demanding a boycott of Maldives. The act of the three deputy ministers has been condemned by the Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), the leaders of several other political parties, and the Maldives Association of Tourism Industry. The Maldivian government has distanced itself from the comments and suspended the three ministers. The Maldivian high commissioner to India was summoned by the Ministry of External Affairs of India, following which the Indian High Commissioner in the Maldives was summoned by the Maldives’ Foreign Ministry to explain the situation. The Indian High Commissioner was told that the derogatory remarks made by three deputy ministers against India do not represent the views of the Maldivian government.
India-Maldives bilateral relations are going through a period of uncertainty following regime change in the Maldives in November 2023. Muizzu administration’s policy decision asking India to withdraw all the Indian military personnel from the Maldives, non-renewal of the hydrographic agreement signed in 2019, non-attendance of the Colombo Security Conclave and its disinclination to follow through on the ‘India first’ policy has raised doubts about the future of India-Maldives relations.
Explaining his policy decision towards India, President Muizzu stated that he got the mandate to remove foreign military presence and improve self-reliance. However, he would like to strengthen the bilateral relations and would like to resolve the issues through dialogue and negotiation. Respecting Maldives’ sovereign rights, the Government of India has refrained from making any official reaction to the new administration’s policy decisions. India has committed itself to cooperating with the Muizzu administration despite its intense ‘India Out’ campaign before the Presidential election. Reportedly, a joint committee has been formed to resolve the issues between India and the Maldives. Responding to Muizzu’s request for debt restructuring, India has agreed to look into the matter positively.
While both governments are quietly navigating through their differences, at a moment when bilateral relations appear fragile, the irresponsible comments of the Maldivian ministers on social media have sparked outrage among the people in both countries and thereby complicated the situation. This development has the potential to further deteriorate bilateral relations if a concerted effort is not taken by President Muizzu to prevent anti-India rhetoric by the ruling party members.
In the name of sovereign rights and people’s will, both governments can ill afford to maintain a distance and allow the bilateral relations to deteriorate. This will have grave political, economic, security, geopolitical and geostrategic repercussions. As a smaller country, Maldives will face the maximum impact of it, if it spoils its relations with one of its largest development partners. This will also not be in India’s interests. India looks at the Maldives as an important neighbour, especially through the prism of maritime security.
India has always considered the Maldives as a crucial development and security partner and has been providing assistance in these areas since the 1980s. There was, however, a brief period of hiatus in the bilateral engagement under the Yameen administration during 2013-18, because of the then ruling party Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM)’s anti-India approach. Bilateral relations improved significantly after the regime change in the Maldives in 2018. The government of India extended its full-fledged cooperation to the Solih Government during 2018-2023 under the framework of India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy and the Vision for ‘Security and Growth for all’. With the benefit of hindsight, one can say, it was perhaps unwise on the part of India not to engage the PPM-People’s National Congress (PNC) coalition, which was in the opposition during that time. Nevertheless, following the change of regime in 2023, the government of India has expressed its willingness to cooperate with the ruling PPM-PNC coalition.
President Muizzu has a grand vision for his country such as increasing GDP from US$ 6 billion to US$ 12 billion by bringing four to five million tourists, diversifying the economy and enhancing investment among many other plans. To diversify the economy, the Muizzu administration emphasises on the construction of an international special economic zone to facilitate reexporting. He probably realises the need to diversify foreign policy too to fulfil his election promises, instead of focusing on one or two countries. Therefore, perhaps after becoming President, Muizzu has not used an anti-India stand with as much intensity as his party engaged in before and during the elections. In fact, he had expressed his desire to visit India first in November 2023, which did not materialise because of a lack of consensus on dates. All this might have prompted Abdulla Yameen, leader of the ‘India Out’ campaign, to part ways with him and form a new party.
All said and done, anti-Indian sentiments remain and the comments on social media by three deputy ministers and other PNC members attest to this. Therefore, these cannot be treated as isolated cases. Suspension of the ministers may have been the first good step forward to salvage the situation, but President Muizzu must make serious efforts to stop the hatred and adopt a realistic approach towards India. The Maldivian economic situation and the geopolitical reality in the region necessitate that Muizzu manages its relations with all important stakeholders and partners in the region to fulfil his election pledges and vision for the country.
As far as India is concerned, it must ensure that the relationship is managed well by acknowledging the sensitivities of the small state and clearly articulating its own sensitivities to the presence of extra-regional powers in the name of dual-purpose strategic projects. Respecting Maldives’ sensitivity to the foreign military presence in the country, India can offer to continue the same services through civilians.
The author is an Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA).
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