Farooq Wani 

During the SCO National Security Advisors meeting at New Delhi last month, China and Pakistan were conspicuous by their absence. Since both Beijing and Islamabad have been vociferously complaining about the looming security threats, their decision to give this meeting a miss defies logical comprehension. So, even though these two (self- acclaimed) ‘iron friends’ marked their presence through virtual attendance, it’s clear that this decision was taken in order to avoid international condemnation.

Both China and Pakistan had good reasons to avoid this SCO meeting. By adopting an aggressive posture and using force in its attempt to alter the alignment of the Line of Actual Control [LAC] that demarcates the Indo-Tibet border, Beijing has created a tense environment with serious security related implications. Similarly, by continuing to brazenly sponsor terrorism in J&K, Pakistan has destroyed peace and tranquility in the region. As such, Beijing and Islamabad’s apprehensions of being called out during the SCO NSA meeting is understandable.

What needs to be watched out is whether Beijing and Islamabad will physically attend the SCO Defence Ministers’ meeting scheduled between April 27 – 29. Though there’s no word yet on Pakistan’s participation, China’s newly appointed Defence Minister and State Councillor, General Li Shangfu, is likely to make his first visit to India since the LAC crisis began. According to media reports, India and China are also exploring the possibility of holding a bilateral meeting between General Li and Rajnath Singh. The last such meeting was held in Moscow in September 2020. 

It is expected that having previously come to an agreement in Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra and Hot Springs, China’s Defence Minister would perhaps discuss disengagement in the last two of seven friction points in Eastern Ladakh – Demchok and Depsang. His intervention is necessary because despite 17 rounds of military-level talks to resolve the LAC stand-off, differences still persist, which needs early resolution to ease tension along the LAC and create conditions to “restore normalcy” in relations

This is however not an easy task as Beijing insists that disengagement is complete from its side, and that the remaining two areas (Demchok and Depsang) of contention predate the current stand-off. However, since China is on record saying that it is willing to cooperate with all SCO member states to vigorously promote the ‘Shanghai Spirit’, there is still some hope of an amicable settlement. Insofar as Pakistan is concerned, India has (without directly naming it) rightly maintained that state sponsored terrorism is amongst the most serious threats to regional and global peace. 

Being the target of terrorism being fuelled by Pakistan, New Delhi has repeatedly raised this issue in various international platforms like the SCO, BRICS, UN, etc, and the April SCO meet isn’t likely to be any different. With the dastardly terrorist attack on an army vehicle in Poonch district of J&K by Pakistan backed terrorists, India could well make it abundantly clear to the seven other member states (China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) that it cannot be blamed for militarily responding to such provocative incidents.

Maintaining that “any act of terrorism, regardless of its motivation, is unjustifiable,” New Delhi has emphasised that SCO Charter calls upon all member states “to have mutual respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity of states, non-use of force or threat of its use in international relations, and seeking no unilateral military superiority in areas.” From this it’s clear that New Delhi will surely bring up hostile acts being perpetrated by Pakistan through its proxies in J&K ranging from use of drones to transship weapons, warlike stores and narcotics across the Line of Control (LoC) as well as China’s muscle-flexing in Eastern Ladakh. 

Islamabad has given indications that Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari would attend the SCO foreign ministers’ meeting in Goa. However, considering the fact that there will be lot for him to answer for, his attendance remains a big question mark. Thursday’s attack in Poonch district of J&K on an Indian army vehicle by Pakistan backed terrorists in which six soldiers lost their lives would make his position even more uncomfortable. So, it’s quite likely that Islamabad cooks up an imaginary face-saving excuse to protect the Bhutto-Zardari scion from embarrassment! 

The author is Editor Brighter Kashmir, author, TV commentator, political analyst and columnist. 

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