By Neeraj Rajput
“Our country must be self-reliant. But it does not mean isolation,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok ahead of his meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un who is on an official visit to Russia for “several more days.” Cornered by the West in the wake of aggression against Ukraine, the meeting between the heads of these two states, means a new axis of isolated countries is emerging threatening the US led post-cold war world order. But such an axis can have potential threat to India too in the near future.
How?
“If we travel on this road for half an hour more, we can reach the North Korean border. Since, we have to take a diversion from this highway for a Russian military base, we will skip the border”, said an Indian diplomat who was accompanying us from Vladivostok to a ‘secret Cold war era’ Russian military base where the first ever tri-service military exercise of Indian and Russian armed forces was taking place. This was in the year 2017 when I along with my cameraperson were visiting the Far-East region of Russia for the media coverage of the ‘biggest’ military drill India had conducted with any friendly foreign country.
So, when the pictures and videos of North Korean supremo Kim Jong Un’s train entering Russia emerged, it was no surprise for me. The world famous trans-Siberian train starts from Vladivostok and reaches Moscow in ten days. But downstream this rail network connects to Pyongyang, the obscure capital of North Korea and even to South Korean capital Seoul. But due to strained relations between two neighbouring (warring) Korean countries, the trains do not cross the heavily fortified DMZ border, the Demilitarized Zone.
Why does Kim Jong travel on train?
While Kim Jong prefers travelling in his armoured green train as some believe due to his fear of plane crash, he was welcomed by Putin who also travelled from Moscow to Vladivostok. The first meeting between leaders took place in Vostochny space launch centre on Wednesday, close to Vladivostok, which houses Russia’s Pacific fleet headquarter.
Putin himself took Kim for a ‘spacewalk’ of the Vostochny centre suggesting Russia wants to help North Korea in its space programme. North Korea’s attempt to launch ‘spy satellites’ in space have failed twice this year, the latest being last month. So, there is no doubt that Russia will help Kim Jong Un’s space programme. The next launch of a North Korean spy satellite is due in the month of October, which is meant to monitor incoming missile attacks and plot his own missiles more accurately.
During the four-hour long meeting on Wednesday, Putin presented Kim with a ‘space glove’ while the latter presented a North Korean made carbine (rifle). Kim Jong Un’s ceremonial return gift of a carbine means North Korea is ready to supply arms and ammunition to Russia which it desperately needs in the wake of the Ukraine war. In the 18 month long ‘special military operations’ against Ukraine, Russian arsenal has been emptied and wants more weapons and other military hardware and equipment. Presence of Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu during the bilateral meeting between Putin and Kim is an indication.
Russian Defence Minister Shoigu was in Pyongyang last month to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Korean War (1950-53) and was thrilled to witness North Korea’s leap forward in the field of arms and ammunition. Shoigu visited the weapons exhibition in Pyongyang and praised Kim for building “most powerful army in the world by constantly strengthening its might.”
While Putin left for Moscow after a high-profile meeting in Vostochny, Shoigu is now in Vladivostok to attend Kim. For the next ‘several days’, Kim will witness the might of Russia’s Pacific Fleet in Vladivostok adjoining the Sea of Japan. He will also be taking a tour of civilian and military equipment factories in Komsomolsk on Amur.
But what is still not clear about any weapons deal, as the US was apprehensive about. Maybe it’s kept under secrets due to UN resolutions against North Korea. Putin had also admitted that there are “certain limitations” to military cooperation.
But what is worrying the West is that ‘isolated’ Russia is forming an alliance with the ‘rogue states’. On one hand, while the US led coalition has failed to isolate Russia fully, on the other is the emergence of a new world order in the post-Cold War era. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken himself accepted that “decades of relative geopolitical stability have given way to an intensifying competition with authoritarian powers, revisionist powers.” Russia is now closer to regimes in North Korea, China and Iran.
While the bonding between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping is no secret, Iran was recently inducted in the BRICS group. India is also an active member of BRICS, the others being Russia, China and South Africa.
India is Watching
India is maintaining ‘strategic autonomy’ with a delicate balance between the West and the Russian block. India demonstrated this during the G-20 summit (9-10 September) when a New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration was passed which mentioned (short of condemning) ‘Ukraine war’ four times but without offending Russia. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s picture with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has gone viral where both are laughing loudly soon after the conclusion of the summit.
India also reiterated PM Modi’s statement in the G-20 Declaration which he gave while meeting Putin last year, “Today’s era must not be of war.”
Putin has good relations with India who praise PM Modi for his decisive leadership, as recently as in Vladivostok while addressing the World Economic Forum earlier this week. But India’s relationship cannot be a cake walk. Because, India is having renewed tension with China along the 3488 Km long border which is called the Line of Actual Control (LAC) from the past more than three years, more precisely after Galwan Valley clash (June ‘20).
What if another neighbouring adversary Pakistan join Russian block? There have been voices in Pakistan who want close relations with Russia due to economic turmoil and sharp rise in the prices of fuels. With US forces quitting Afghanistan, Pakistan has not been on good terms with the US. The former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan even went to the extent of alleging that he was dethroned on the behest of America. Reason, he (Imran) was in Moscow when Putin had announced ‘special military operations’ (war) against Ukraine on 24th Feb ‘22.
In the recent past, Pakistan is also feeling isolated with UAE and Saudi Arabia coming closer to India and forming strategic partnerships. While India had ‘invited’ UAE as a special guest during the G-20 Summit, the Crown Prince (Prime Minister) of Saudi, Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) stayed in Delhi after the end of the Summit for bilateral cooperation.
Pakistan is part of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) which is led by both China and Russia (India is also an active member). In post-Cold War era, India is ‘shifting’ more towards the US as such Russia is forming ‘friendship’ with Islamabad. Although Russia has cleared that it “won’t do anything detrimental to the interests of India” but shipping 45 thousand tonnes of fuel to Pakistan in the month of June this year to control the rising prices shows another ‘rogue state’ can ally with Russia. Since both want to end ‘isolation’.
The author is a Senior War-journalist having more than two decades of multimedia experience with specialization in defence, conflict, security, strategic affairs & geopolitics. He has done ground reporting from the Korean Peninsula and his book on the Russia-Ukraine war, ‘Operation Z Live’ in Hindi has just been released.
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