Post-Article 370 abrogation: The evolving security and development landscape of Jammu and Kashmir

By Liyaqat Nazir

The vanishing of Pakistan euphoria is partly due to Pakistan’s shoddy domestic politics, the bad shape of its economy, and its international image over the last few years, but a major blow to the Pakistan dream was dealt by the abrogation of Article 370 and the several changes introduced in its aftermath.

While the post-Article 370 overall development and security scenario of Jammu and Kashmir is a subject of debate, there have been perceptible and significant improvements across several fronts including the security situation. The most significant cumulative development as a result of the post-370 changes introduced by the central government and UT administration of Jammu and Kashmir has been that the ‘Pakistan Dream’ is almost dead in the Valley. There are hardly any takers, especially among young Kashmiris, of the infamous slogans such as “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” (Kashmir will become part of Pakistan) or “Hum Pakistani Hain Pakistan Hamara Hai” (We are Pakistanis and Pakistan is ours).

In an unexpected move on 5 August 2019, the Modi-led government de-operationalised Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which hitherto gave Jammu & Kashmir a ‘special status’. The abolition of Article 370 had long been an ideological project of the BJP, and its parent party, Jana Sangh. The party had been blaming the Kashmir problem and the lack of national integration among Kashmiris on the presence of autonomy and special status that Jammu and Kashmir enjoyed within the otherwise asymmetrical Indian federation under Articles such as 370 & 35A. These provisions gave the erstwhile state’s ‘permanent residents’ special rights regarding jobs, property ownership, voting rights, etc., and denied the same to the rest of Indians. The ruling party in the center had, therefore, harboured the abrogation of this special status under 370 & 35A as a core element of its election manifesto.

Sensing the possible ramifications of the move given that article 370 was a sensitive issue for Kashmiris, several political parties and leaders had warned against the abrogation of Article 370. People’s Democratic Party’s Mehbooba Mufti famously cautioned that if the BJP went ahead with the abrogation, there would be no one left in the Valley to hold the national flag. It is ironic that Article 370, being a part of the Indian constitution, united both mainstream parties and separatist leadership. Neither camp wanted the privileges and autonomy under 370 to be taken away. There was actually a pan-societal attachment to Article 370. To a large measure, people associated their political identity with Article 370 within the Indian Union. However, the ruling government led by Modi went ahead and de-operationalised significant portions of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, and immediately imposed a communication blackout. Many leaders, especially those based in the Valley, and several political analysts believed that there would be a bloodbath in Kashmir. But to the surprise of all, the situation was kept under control, and there were no major law and order problems. There were no incidents of stone-pelting, and Kashmiris remained silent. All credit goes to the Indian security forces, including the Indian Army and the people of Jammu and Kashmir, for handling the delicate situation in Kashmir during those critical months. Had the situation not been handled with strategy and wisdom, no one knows how many innocent Kashmiris would have lost their lives or what the situation would be like today. Since then, the security situation in Jammu & Kashmir has continuously improved. This was recently acknowledged by National Conference supremo Dr Farooq Abdullah and his son and former chief minister Omar Abdullah.

In the aftermath of the Article 370 abrogation, the Union government and state administration took several steps that will have a long-term impact on the situation in Kashmir and on the evolving relationship between Kashmiris and the rest of Indians over the years. The central government used a policy of ‘Ironhand’ to suppress separatist politics and militancy in the Valley. A few prominent separatist leaders, including Syed Ali Shah Geelani and Ashraf Sahrai, have died of natural causes. Several others, including Shabir Ahmad Shah, Yasin Malik, and Asiya Andrabi, are in jail facing serious criminal charges. Also, the Home Ministry banned several separatist organizations that used to function under the banner of the Ali Geelani-led (later under Ashraf Sahrai) All Parties Hurriyat Conference. The hardline Jamaat-e-Islami, which traditionally held the view that Kashmir is a ‘dispute’ between India and Pakistan that these two should resolve and has largely been seen as a pro-Pakistan party, had already been banned in early 2019. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has led a crusade against terror financing in Jammu & Kashmir through tens of hundreds of raids, recovering cash, documentary proof, and so on. This has severely damaged and crippled the terrorist ecosystem in the Valley. Further, the UT administration, especially under the current Lieutenant Governor Shri Manoj Sinha, has used Article 311 of the Indian constitution to investigate terror links and anti-national activities of serving government servants. Tens of government employees, including relatives of Syed Ali Geelani and Syed Salahuddin (Head of the PoK-based Jihad Council), have been sacked under this provision of the constitution. Only two days ago, four government employees, including two people serving in the Jammu & Kashmir police, were terminated from their services. It should be noted that there have been allegations of unfair treatment and arbitrariness from people who have lost their jobs under Article 311. However, all these hardline approaches seem to be working in favour of Delhi and the security scenario in Kashmir. Many had feared that these measures would be counterproductive, but as of now, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Kashmiris, in the past several years, have been undergoing a process of introspection. They are now moving from a state of excitement with Pakistan to a state of indifference or some kind of hate.

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Post-2019, Kashmiris seem to be moving ahead when it comes to psychological and even material integration with the rest of Indians. There are more Kashmiris, especially among the educated youth, willing to study and work anywhere in the country today than there were a decade ago. Go to any top university, whether it’s AMU, Jamia, JNU, or IITs, and you will find scores of Kashmiris finishing their education and starting work in Delhi-NCR or other cities. Kashmiris today are willing to work and earn their livelihood anywhere from the Northeast to Tamil Nadu to Gujarat. This is because they feel more like Indians at heart than at any time in history. The Pakistan dream that had been sold to them for several decades is now dead. They no longer admire the pipe dream of being a part of Pakistan. The vanishing of Pakistan euphoria is partly due to Pakistan’s shoddy domestic politics, the bad shape of its economy, and its international image over the last few years, but a major blow to the Pakistan dream was dealt by the abrogation of Article 370 and the several changes introduced in its aftermath. No one had anticipated that the post-2019 changes would unfold in this manner. The ruling Modi 2.0 definitely deserves praise for helping to stabilize the situation in Kashmir and making it suitable for becoming a hub of tourism and economic activity. In the past two years, more tourists have visited the Kashmir valley than at any time in the past 25 years. If this is not a marker of improved security, what is then? Both tourists from other states and Kashmiris in Kashmir today feel the same.

As the situation holds today, it seems that Kashmiris have moved beyond Article 370 and eagerly seek participation and representation within the democratic processes of the country. This was most evident during the recently held parliamentary elections in the valley in which youth were at the forefront and led election campaigns in favour of their preferred candidates. This was most visible in North Kashmir, where Engineer Rashid won from the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat. His whole campaign, led by his two sons, was championed by crowds of enthusiastic youth. A whopping 59.10% of people in the Baramulla constituency turned out to vote, breaking several past records. Even on the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat, a voting percentage of 38.49% was recorded, which is more than four and a half times higher than in the 2019 parliamentary elections. Also, the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency witnessed a polling percentage of 55.40%, which is again higher than in the past several elections, although this time around, the seat was a combination of areas from both the Jammu and Kashmir divisions.