By Dr Neha Sinha & Arindam Goswami
Nestled in north-east Africa, Sudan is widely acknowledged for its rich cultural heritage and turbulent political history. Known for being home to the legendary kingdom of Kush, the nation has undergone a series of transitions assorted by episodes of distress with one common purpose, the pursuit of democracy. However, this has ultimately led to a series of civil wars, with its second one being considered the longest in the history of Africa, lasting for over 22 years. In these events determined by violence, the civilians have been the primary casualties ultimately affecting other nations as well. India and Sudan share a special connection with a part of the Sudanese community tracing its roots back to India, which came over hundred years back and has become an integral part of the nation over the flow of time. However, with another civil war taking place, such escalations have fabricated the foundation of a horror-stricken situation, especially for the citizens living there.
The ongoing clash erupted in the middle of April between two main factions – the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), loyal to the country’s de facto leader Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) which follows Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. However, the power struggle dates back to the years before a 2019 uprising that overthrew dictator Omar al-Bashir. During that time, he amassed powerful security forces that he purposefully positioned against one another. After Bashir was ousted, efforts to establish a democratic, civilian-led government fell short, and Khartoum diplomats warned in early 2022 that they feared such unrest would break out. Tensions had risen in the weeks prior to the initial outbreak of the hostilities.
The recent death toll of over 500 people, has called for grave concern to which India has been constantly monitoring the situation and trying to ensure the safety of the Indian nationals. This involved having a meeting with the Secretary General of the United Nations in an effort to bring forward a ceasefire which was observed for 72 hours to coincide with Eid al-Fitr. Setting the primary agenda of evacuating Indians, support was provided from France, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia, along with India launching its rescue mission called ‘Operation Kaveri’ in the effort to successfully bring them home. Along with that, being aware of many others stuck in Khartoum due to the uncertainty of the ceasefire, has been prioritised.
The fundamental idea of rescuing Indian nationals has been the most crucial agenda for New Delhi. However, certain elements such as endorsing diplomacy as the constructive path towards mediating the conflict could potentially bring an optimistic approach that requires the leadership of the current president of the G20 summit. The United States and Saudi Arabia along with the United Nations have been working diplomatically for a ceasefire. However, the precariousness of the results has certainly called for the need to manifest consensus and demonstrate a unified approach. Given the shared cultural similarities and diversity between India and Sudan, it is essential for the upholder of ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ to ensure a strategic and diplomatic solution that paves the way for building consensus. The Sudanese Ambassador to India, Abdalla Omer Bashir Elhusain, has also emphasised the importance of New Delhi’s position in fostering cooperation and coordination for a confident future between Africa and India. This underscores the critical role of sustained diplomatic efforts in forging a mutually beneficial partnership between the two nations for a brighter and more prosperous future.
While the pursuit of diplomatic solutions to foster unity is crucial, it is not the sole concern that needs to be addressed. Throughout the course of history, civil wars have been a recurring event that has left an indelible mark on societies around the world. One of the most striking features of these conflicts is the profound and far-reaching impact they have, which often entices surrounding states to get involved that could further escalate tensions in the region. Under the theory of civil war contagion and neighbouring interventions, the existing models of civil war intervention struggle to account for the intervention decisions of third-party states that share a border which brings concern as contiguous third parties account for a significant number of interventions.. Sudan’s geographical position in the heart of the African continent, bordering the Red Sea, the Sahel region, and the Horn of Africa, has made it a strategic location covered by regional powers to which analysts believe that the prolonged conflict has the potential to engage nations in the region, with far-reaching implications beyond its boundaries. This also includes its seven neighbouring states having their own set of national and subnational interests, ultimately resulting in a complex web of regional alliances. In this regard, India’s diplomatic efforts requires to aim at preventing the neighbouring countries of Sudan from getting embroiled in the ongoing conflict; understanding the potential for a larger regional conflict looms large, with countries like Ethiopia, Eritrea, Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt at risk of getting further involved in the ongoing crisis.
With neighbouring countries frequently becoming embroiled in the conflict, civil wars serve as a stark reminder of the destabilising effects of war, both domestically and internationally. Whether through refugee crises, cross-border skirmishes, or diplomatic and economic fallout, the ripple effects of civil wars can be felt for generations, long after the fighting has ended. Having shared a cultural tie based on the struggle against colonialism, India has always seen a humanitarian approach towards the continent. This brings a crucial role for the current president of the G20 summit as India has the opportunity to champion diplomacy and foster cooperation between the nations to secure a future that ensures prosperity by collaborating towards shared objectives.
About the authors:
Dr Neha Sinha is Senior Assistant Professor at Amity Institute of International Studies, Amity University, Noida.
Arindam Goswami is Research Fellow at Amity Institute of International Studies, Amity University, Noida.
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