India’s cashew exports recorded the sharpest rise among major commodities in October 2025, with a surge of 126.85% year-on-year to $0.6 billion. The spike in cashew shipments was accompanied by growth in a handful of categories such as meat, dairy and poultry products, marine produce and coffee. But the most notable outlier was electronics, the only segment among the top 10 export categories to post growth during the month.
Electronics exports rose 19% year-on-year to $4.08 billion in October, even as engineering goods, India’s largest export category, declined 16.7%. Other major sectors such as petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, chemicals and textiles reported contractions ranging between 5% and 29%.
US tariffs and China dumping hit competitiveness
A report by ET attributes the broad-based slowdown to global trade disruptions, particularly fresh US tariffs under the Trump administration. The US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports, split into two phases beginning on 7 August and 27 August, which has already impacted outbound shipments.
Exports to not just the US but also key markets including the UAE, UK, Germany, Italy, Australia, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa and South Korea declined in October, ET reported. Analysts believe Chinese dumping at below-market prices in these regions has made Indian goods less competitive, the report added. There is also concern that electronics exports could face headwinds from November, as the US reduced its fentanyl-linked tariffs on China from 20% to 10%, potentially eroding India’s relative advantage, even though electronics remain tariff-exempt, ET reported.
Smartphones drive electronics growth
Electronics exports were buoyed primarily by smartphone shipments worth $2.4 billion in October, accounting for nearly 60% of the category. According to the report, Apple alone contributed $1.6 billion in iPhone exports, making up about 40% of total electronics exports for the month. Despite a slight moderation in August and September due to festive season demand within the domestic market, smartphone exports remained on an upward trajectory. In September, exports surged 100% compared to the same month last year.
For the April–October period, electronics remained the fastest-growing export category, with shipments rising 37.82% to $26.28 billion, up from $19.07 billion a year earlier. During the same period, five of the country’s top 10 export categories registered a contraction.
The gap between electronics and petroleum exports, currently the second and third largest export baskets, has narrowed significantly to $8.08 billion from $21.99 billion last year. If current momentum continues, electronics could replace petroleum as India’s second-largest export category in the next few years, according to estimates cited by ET.
Exports grow modestly, but trade deficit widens
Even as pockets of resilience emerge, India’s overall trade picture remains under pressure. Total exports of goods and services for April–October 2025 rose 4.84% year-on-year to $491.80 billion, while imports increased faster at 5.74% to $569.95 billion, widening the trade deficit to $78.14 billion.
For October alone, exports eased marginally to $72.89 billion, while imports surged to $94.70 billion, resulting in a monthly trade gap of $21.80 billion.
Despite strong performance, the electronics industry is increasingly wary of a “normalisation” of US-China trade relations, which could undercut India’s hard-earned cost advantage. Industry experts told ET that without strategic policy support, the export edge built over recent years could weaken rapidly.