With the Election Commission poised to announce the poll schedule this week, political parties are in overdrive, as they try to stitch up alliances and finalise seat-sharing pacts.
It?s the same story in the UPA as well as the NDA. Sensing the general uncertainty?there are no favourites and surveys predict a hung Parliament?and estimating that the two main national parties will be less decisive to the final outcome, the smaller parties are driving a tough bargain with the Congress and BJP.
The Congress is yet to finalise a seat-sharing arrangement with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh as mutual suspicion and distrust cast a shadow over the negotiations. By all accounts, a full alliance between the two sides is unlikely to take place. The SP refuses to part with the 24 seats demanded by the Congress, resulting in a stalemate.
The Congress?s prospects of striking an understanding with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal are also facing uncertainty. Senior leader Pranab Mukherjee, who has not been known to share a rapport with Mamata Banerjee, is at the helm of affairs in the state. A tie-up can help the Congress in at least half-a-dozen seats.
In Tamil Nadu, the open offer of an alliance by the AIADMK is causing a flutter in the Congress. Party leaders from the state are desperate to shake off the DMK, as they believe the Congress will be routed if it continues to cast its lot with the DMK-led alliance. Newly-appointed party general secretary for the state, Ghulam Nabi Azad, met MPs and MLAs from the state last week and was surprised by the overwhelming response favouring a tie-up with the AIADMK.
In Bihar, it is the RJD led by Lalu Prasad Yadav that is under pressure to sew up an alliance with the LJP and Congress. The RJD leader has agreed to concede as many as seven additional seats to UPA allies, a clear indication of the realisation that he is on the downslide and will have to take the only chance he has. Yadav has been playing the perfect suitor, having visited Paswan’s house recently to attend a family occasion. The results have been positive, with Paswan joining in the chorus that the UPA must contest together in Bihar.
The BJP?s predicament is not encouraging as it has not been able to prevent partners from leaving the NDA fold. The BJP has not been able to woo either the Trinamool Congress or the AIADMK and has not been able to strike an understanding with the TDP.
The party must tread carefully in Bihar as the JD(U) is turning aggressive in that state. The JD(U) has decided to project the work its government has done in Bihar in the Lok Sabha campaign instead of promoting ?Advani for PM?. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar openly criticised the BJP?s remarks on Ayodhya at its National Council meet last month. However, political watchers feel that despite the rhetoric, the BJP and JD(U) will not part ways as such a step will mean the end of the Nitish Kumar-led government in Bihar.
The Third Front, on the other hand, is yet to take any coherent shape even though the Left along with BSP chief Mayawati, AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa and TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu is apparently hard at work to set up an anti-Congress, anti-BJP alliance. The four Left parties have now decided to come out with a joint appeal next week asking secular parties from both the UPA and NDA to join forces and strengthen the Third Front.