India?s telecom density has reached close to 30% and, more importantly, the rural tele-density is approaching the double-digit mark, from just 2% two years ago. We are adding over 8 million phones each month?a rate that is higher than China?s. Our call charges are amongst the lowest. So where is the question of doubt about the telecom sector being any thing but a success story?

Let us take a step back and see what were the targets and the vision spelt out for the telecom sector in the New Telecom Policy 1999 (NTP ?99). The policy laid out certain targets, essentially covering voice telephony. Most, if not all, of these targets have been surpassed way ahead time and to that extent the telecom sector has indeed been a great success.

Besides these targets, several objectives were specified giving the vision of the policy. Two key objectives were to provide a balance between universal service to all uncovered areas and the provision of high-level services capable of meeting the needs of the country?s economy, and to create a modern and efficient communications infrastructure taking into account the convergence of IT, media, telecom and consumer electronics. The emphasis thus was on geographical spread, world-class network and contribution to economy.

To realise this vision, the government had come out with a Broadband Policy in 2004, which also spelt out specific growth targets. In addition, Trai had proposed a ?unified licensing? framework besides giving recommendations on the ?way forward? for rural communications, and suggesting steps for early and competitive addition of 3G and WiMax services. It also spelt out specific growth targets.

Evidently all these steps had been taken by 2004 for enabling the telecom and IT sectors help bring improved efficiency and transparency into the country?s socio-economic activities and to also push the development of value added services to promote new economic and employment opportunities, boosting productivity and GDP.

In fact, appreciating the importance of modern wireless technologies, the then new minister in-charge went so far as to say in 2004 that India would skip 3G and leapfrog to 4G wireless systems. One cannot fault him for not knowing at that time that while 3G was a reality 4G was only a concept. However, at least the desire to take Indian telecom forward with emphasis on broadband and convergent applications seemed to have been there.

NTP ?99 had clearly identified that there would be a much greater need for spectrum and had required that additional spectrum bands should be identified for communications purposes and through frequency re-farming, these bands should be got vacated from the existing users, mainly defence. The document had gone on to identify that the funds needed for the vacation of these bands (so that existing users could be moved elsewhere without interruption of their services) were to come from spectrum charges and revenue share charged by the government from telecom operators.

The raison d?etre for these preparations was clearly to be in line with the worldwide trend to create knowledge-based economy with world-class infrastructure. Looking at the achievements and the actions taken by the policy makers since 2004, however, tells a different story.

On the broadband front we find that even one-third of the targets have not been met. Convergence has been brought in only to the extent of being permitted for access network, that too as an action taken prior to 2004. Spectrum continues to be a matter of speculation. The less said about the quality of service the better. That spectrum shortage is partly responsible for congestion in business districts is not even acknowledged.

When it comes to opening up of new bands for communications services, NTP ?99 had prescribed revision of National Frequency Allocation Plan (NFAP) every two years. To date, even the NFAP 2002 is in a draft form. Recent discussions have revealed that it was more a statement of what could not be done, rather than being a vision document spelling out to the operators and manufacturers what bands will be made available and in what time frame.

We seem to be totally lost in concentrating on how to bring in new players (ostensibly to further reduce mobile voice tariffs) forgetting that contribution of voice telephony, though important, to the growth of economy is estimated to be less than half that of broadband connections. We also seem to forget that the so-called 2G equipments are based on inefficient early 1990s technology and that more efficient equipments are now extensively deployed worldwide even for voice telephony.

While one appreciates the achievements in the voice segment of telecom sector, the policy and vision related stagnation over the last several years in other more important areas (and even in the voice telephony area going forward) is disturbing.

The meaning of doing more than 8 million connections a month is that the policies followed thus far, and now well understood, are indeed adequate to allow growth in this segment to sustain, provided spectrum gets vacated quickly and spectrum vision is clear and enabling. The need today is to move on to bold steps for enabling the growth of broadband and value added services.

The telecom technology has moved far beyond the 1990?s digital technology?to being Internet Protocol (IP) based, where the intelligence and the ability to create new services and applications has moved out of the centralised switches to the periphery of the network. The networks now available will permit an innovative bright youngster to create a totally new application while being only a user of the network.

The increased activity in the area of mobile commerce is a very good sign for the economy. RBI has already moved in with draft guidelines on m-commerce. The efficiency with which mobile commerce can be handled with new broadband technologies is way beyond the experience so far. Likewise, the success of organisations like Dr Devi Shetty?s Narayana Hridayalaya project of using mobility to carry virtually instantaneous health care for cardiology to rural areas or the fisherman?s information programme of MS Swaminathan Foundation using today?s low speed commercial data links can be enhanced many times over with the new technologies.

Three years ago, the total number of 3G customers worldwide was about 30 million and with 75 operators. As of February this year, there were 274 million customers and 274 operators worldwide.

Unfortunately, our dithering with 3G and Wimax, lack of a vision or even a plan on the spectrum front and totally perplexing preoccupation with the so called 2G technologies is getting to be such that telecom from being a sector, which a few years ago was regarded as the success story, has become a story of what could have been.

?The author is former member, Trai