Returning from her four-month ?vacation?, AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa is stepping into a different political current in Chennai. She has lost three of her allies, expelled two MLAs, forfeited five Assembly seats to the ruling coalition and her party is facing a welfare juggernaut set in motion by the DMK, which rules the state and is a partner of the ruling coalition at the Centre.
It was rumoured that her party men were scouting for a house for her in Delhi before the elections, as she was tipped to be a kingmaker in case of a hung Parliament. But while the AIADMK won representation in the House after a five-year absence, its rivals ran away with the power. Jaya left for Kodanadu Estate hills near Ooty on May 30, days after the general election results were announced.
In a string of developments during her stay at the estate, the exit of the once-prized ally, PMK, from the AIADMK-led alliance last week was the latest, though it was hardly the most surprising. In fact, the nudge came from the AIADMK which was no longer convinced about the political might claimed by the PMK that won no seats in the general election.
Jaya?s decision to boycott the Assembly by-polls handed over five seats to the ruling coalition, and led to the exit of the Left parties from the AIADMK-led opposition front. The boycott was variously described as undemocratic and ill-advised, as it only strengthened the DMK base.
The CPI(M) and CPI left the boat when the AIADMK unilaterally announced its decision to boycott the by-polls, though observers say even this was not unexpected, as the political base of the two partners were not complementary.
The trade unions, one of the strongest forces with the Left parties, were yet to forget the iron-fisted Jaya regime, while some of the caste-Hindu communities in the rural heartland of Tamil Nadu, long-time supporters of the AIADMK, are staunchly opposed to the caste policies of the Communist movement.
The AIADMK is thus left with a single ally, the MDMK, which went through a great erosion of cadres and leaders to the parent DMK in the recent past.
As all these took place while she was at the over 800-acre property co-owned with aide Sasikala, Jaya?s ?vacation? was termed as an exile from active politics.
Her absence led to a debate on a highly centralised party with an omnipotent leader. But her party leaders maintained that it is not her physical presence that matters. ?In opposition, there is no working day ? you don?t attend any official work. She has been monitoring the performance of the state government and still loses no opportunity to criticise the DMK or its government for the wrong policies,? argued a party leader.
?Now we need to strengthen the base, organise mass protests against issues concerning the public and return to our original strength,? said another leader.
However, it is easier said than done, when faced with a state government that is distributing TVs, giving subsidised rice to the poor, free power for small farmers, pay enhancement to government employees, bonuses, and augmented support price for key agricultural produces, to list a few of the sops doled out by the Karunanidhi government.
Jaya will make her first public appearance in Chennai in several months on Monday to distribute financial assistance to the kin of party cadres murdered by their political rivals, among others.