The ?R? syndrome has left few untouched. As ?recession? traversed and engulfed the world ? India too is grappling with the fall-out effects of the syndrome. With an estimated 50,000 to 1.5 lakh Indian workers returning home from the United Arab Emirates alone, ?Returning Migrants? are adding to the ?R? woes of the government. If construction workers are hard hit in the Gulf, the IT professionals are bearing the brunt in the US. With the ambiguity in the number of returning migrants the government is in a blame game mode. As Minister for Overseas Indian Affairs, Vayalar Ravi says, ?Most people have not registered with their respective states or consulates, most of them are waiting for a recall. Since no one is reporting to us, we are not in a position to confirm the numbers. I have written to all the chief ministers to find out how many have come back. So far only the Kerala government has confirmed that 2,500 have reported with the government.? He adds that the government is trying to work out a registration system, and a campaign, ?Please inform us, we can protect you only then.?

In a paradox, while job losses and returning migrants are a reality, remittances have gone up. With India receiving a record $43,500 million in 2008, a sizeable increase from $26,400 million in 2007. Vinay Lal, Professor of History and Asian American Studies, University of California, explains, ?On the question of whether the global economic recession has led to a decline in remittances, the matter is more complicated than the figures suggest. Contrary to common assumptions, remittances have, as a total figure, not declined. The strengthening dollar has made remittances more attractive. There is also a perception, widespread among Indians in the US as well, that Indian banks are more tightly regulated and, in these times of financial stress, more reliable.?

A fact also confirmed by Ravi, ?The security of money in India is a major attraction. The regulated economy, the fact that no bank can collapse in a day here, is a reassuring factor that it is better to put ones hard earned money here.? Lal shares that remittances to bank accounts, or for real estate purchases, particularly if such remittances are coming from Indians settled in the US, have almost certainly increased.

However, Dr Thomas Abraham, Chairman, Global Organization of People of Indian Origin warns, ?Although the remittances have not gone down so far, it would be affected in the future with further job losses, non renewal of work visas and savings being consumed with no new jobs.? Experts opine that even when the situation starts improving, nationals would be preferred over migrants for placements. This will have much deeper implications. The return of a significant number of migrant workers could create social and psychological upheavals in the places to which they return, a growing number of suicides are indicative of that. Abraham suggests, ?The only choice for the migrant workers would be to look for jobs in more places and more countries, even in countries, where people were earlier reluctant to go.?

Despite the increasing flow of remittances , the big question remains as to what extent do these remittances contribute to the development and economic growth. There is still no clear data available as to how much of remittances go to families; how much is diverted towards the stock market, and other investments; and how much is used for real estate purchases.

Experts have pointed out at the deplorable working and living conditions of Indian migrants and how the government till the 1990s had been oblivious of its diasporas needs and potential has not served much good. Lal states, ?The working conditions for Indian migrants in the Gulf countries and West Asia can only be described as appalling, and numerous reports by international organisations, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty have detailed the severely oppressive conditions under which Indian labour in the Gulf lives. So the question of the Indian government?s responsibility and oversight is more far-reaching than what is commonly encountered when migrant workers return to India.? Given the flaws in the system, the Overseas Indian Affairs Ministry is now planning to develop a new programme to develop and tap the potential of the Diaspora. Ravi adds, ?We are spending Rs 1 crore for each state for pre-departure training and skill upgradation of migrants. But a lot will depend on how the states utilise the money and provide the much needed training.?

He elaborates, ?We are trying to find more avenues. I am going to Denmark to sign an agreement to provide skilled and semi-skilled workers. We are in negotiation with the European Union to provide doctors, nurses, semi-skilled worker and this would be orderly, legal immigration and will check unscrupulous agents.?

Amidst recession and stricter immigration laws, how effective will these measures be in providing better living and job opportunities for Indians remains the cardinal issue?

Andhra pradesh

B V Mahalakshmi

A state that gets one of the highest shares of India?s remittances, Andhra Pradesh has seen quite a number of migrants being repatriated from the Gulf region. These people, predominantly from the lower strata of the society, were the ?unlucky NRIs? who had big dreams. However, the gloomy story is that the loan component was bigger than the remittances. Worse was the spate of suicide attempts. According to government officials, they were mostly construction workers, hailing from Telangana having heavy loan baggage.

Indeed, it was not a great homecoming. The money lenders were merciless, putting the workers to all kinds of hardships. Says Inaia a part-time labourer in Dubai from Nizamabad district that right from the air ticket to the suitcase, he had to borrow money. ?I went through a consultant from Mumbai and he managed it all.?? This is not an isolated case. He encouraged others to earn and even forced them to come along for that extra buck. Meanwhile, the Gulf authorities became strict. He was left among many temporary co-workers who stayed in a dormitory and had little food. The loan burden of Rs 2 lakh soared with the higher interest rates. After passing through bitter hardship, he was deported.

To tackle the plight of the returnees, the Minister of State for Energy, Mohammad Ali Shabbir, decided to take rehabilitative measures. An NRI cell was initiated and it conducted job fairs and also provided loans to the returnees. However, this only remained in papers and money lenders continued to harass the returnees. Though the state government declared a moratorium on the loan recovery for a period of two years, it never came into practice except for a few ?influential? people.

Moreover, the government claims to have provided jobs to 70% returnees. The state government even brought back about 13,000 penniless illegal migrants on its cost in special chartered flights in 2007. Many of them were skilled and semi-skilled workers, like turners, fitters, masons, framers, joiners and had experience of working on large-scale projects in the Gulf. Official records state 74 Gulf returnees have ended their lives during June 2008 and 2009 and the government officials are either tight-lipped or ?busy?

to explain. A question that requires immediate attention is whether the government is able to keep a check on the middlemen in this racket. Despite stringent regulations at the airport, there is obviously an ?internal racket? which helps ship illegal immigrants.

A growing concern is that many small time farmers from the Telangana region have even sold their lands and borrowed money to go to the Gulf. Further, with the region becoming drought-hit and backward, these returnees neither have jobs nor a handful to feed their families.

However, the sad story is not restricted to the low and middle section of the society. During the early part of the year, it was not a warm homecoming for the rich IT industry as well. The fate was the same although the nature of return was slightly dignified.

Kerala

M Sarita Varma

Kerala?s remittance economy is indeed shaken by the news of growing trickle of Gulf returnees. Given that nearly one-fourth of Kerala?s GDP is coordinated by the send-homes of about 20 lakh expats, it is a wake-up call to evaluate its indispensability to the state?s development model. Planners are also anxious of the white goods consumption appetite that even the state?s lowest economic layer has worked up.

Rehabilitation of returnees is another concern. State Finance Minister Dr TM Thomas Isaac is toying with a plan of setting up an Islamic Banking (zero-interest banking) outfit to help rehabilitation ventures, if the former employers in GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries could support. However, remittances in the state are not hit. By March 2009 estimates, NRI bank deposits in Kerala have crossed Rs 37,019 crore. In the third quarter of 2008-09 when the downturn sob stories in Gulf were at its peak, the NRI bank savings surged by Rs 2,370 crore. ?The relative robustness of Indian financial outfits is prompting NRIs to migrate their savings from foreign financial institutions to India, giving a capital opportunity,? says George Jacob Muthoot, Joint MD, Muthoot Finance. ?Even the realty shock is on the retreat,? he says. ?Squirreling away savings was never a big concern for Kerala. Nineties saw Kerala economy?s savings rates touching high levels as compared to the East and South-East Asian countries,? says KP Kannan who co-authored Kerala?s Gulf connection: Emigration, remittances and their macroeconomic impact. The real concern is that all that expat send-homes are not feeding a critical minimum into its sorely needed infrastructure capital-formation. A survey conducted by the Department of Economic Analysis and Policy of the RBI states about 90% of the remittances are used for family maintenance and bank deposits. Dr Irudayarajan, Faculty, Centre for Development Studies, informs, ?Remittances have contributed to investments in education and health, accumulation of both movable and non-moveable assets at the household level. Rising standards of living creates opportunities for the real estate.? Also there have been small, measured and meaningful NRI investments in Kerala?s aviation, tourism and IT sectors. India?s first Greenfield airport CIAL in Nedumbassery is a profit-making public private partnership with NRI patronage. In Technopark in Thiruvananthapruam, NRI ventures like UST Global and IBS have got into the reckoning in international IT rosters.

However the question remains has there been any quality investment from a development perspective? Experts opine that most mega-investment opportunities lie dormant. For instance, Kochi, a spontaneous connection point between two international business entrepots Dubai and Singapore has failed to catch the big NRI investor?s eye.

As remittances shoot up every year, inequality grows. A study by KSSP (Kerala Sastra Sahitya Parishad) in 2007 shows the top 20% economic layer laps up the cream 75% of the growth in assets. ?Remittances camouflage the growing poverty, to some extent,? says Prabhat Patnaik, Vice-Chairman, Kerala State Planning Board. Lifestyle aspiration-levels are at high-point, but income-levels do not always match and Kerala has also been topping the country in suicides for seven consecutive years. Indeed a wake up call for the government.

Gujarat

Rutam Vora

Non resident Indian Gujarati?s (NRGs) are feeling the heat of job losses. Workers from Gujarat prefer working in Gulf due to its proximity to the state and high wages. Every year, a large number migrate to Gulf countries for work. Essentially, these comprise traders, accountants and engineers, besides a large component of labourers such as masons, carpenters and other construction workers.

Krishnakant Vakharia, President, Vishwa Gujarati Samaj explains that the Gujarati community has witnessed heavy job losses in the UK and the US. ?However, they are less likely to return as most of them hold dual passport, which could give them social security. But those living in UAE are returning as most of them hold only the Indian passport.?

The slowdown in construction had affected not only the labour class but also the engineers, who were working on large infrastructure projects in Dubai. Vakharia says the loss of forex earnings from these countries could be huge, as remittances account for close to 70% of the total forex earnings.

Most of the remittances were deposited in the government of India?s foreign remittances scheme, which yielded them higher returns. However, the loss of income due to job cuts seems to have affected such deposits as most of the workers tend to encash their savings in absence of income.

However he is hopeful that this would be a short term measure as the returnees would get absorbed in the domestic market. ?As large construction projects are coming up in India with rapid urbanisation, employment generation would be faster. Especially, schemes like, Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) and National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) seem promising for the Gulf returnees,? he adds. However, traders from Kachchh and Saurashtra regions, who had developed their businesses in Oman, are less likely to return despite recession.

KH Patel, Chairman, NRG Committee of Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GCCI) states that Gujarati residents (returnees) would be absorbed by the local industry as it is booming. ?We at GCCI would make all efforts to help jobless returnees to Gujarat. We may also take up the issue with the central government, if so required,? he says.

According to sources, the socio-economic impact of the job losses might not be severe due to development in the domestic economy. However, the state government has already set an NRG committee at district level to look into the matters relating to NRGs.

Sanjay Patani, Director, NRG Foundation, says, ?We have established a district level NRG Committee with the district collector appointed as the chairman of the committee. The committee would meet once in every two months and would try to address the issues relating to NRGs.? However, he denied having any idea of how many people would be returning from overseas due to job losses in the current recession.

Punjab

Swarleen Kaur

It?s a case of ?homeward bound?, but not happily. An increasing number of NRIs from Punjab are coming back to their native land. The recession has drastically shrunk the number of jobs and most NRIs want to make the most of their savings and investments.

The global meltdown has squeezed the inflow of NRI remittances to Punjab this year. The impact of the economic recession can be gauged from the negative growth of 26% in international passenger inflow this April at the Raja Sansi International Airport, Amritsar.

The airport received 30,847 international passengers in April 2009, as against 41,703 passengers in the same month last year. VS Palkar, Director, Airport, Amritsar says, ?International traffic comprises more than 95% Punjabi NRIs and recession has certainly affected their inflow. The situation is so bad now that some airlines have even reduced their operations.?

Kuljit Singh Hayer, President of Punjab Travel Agents Association, highlights a significant drop in the number of NRIs coming to the region. ?The global recession has led to a feeling of insecurity among the NRIs. As a result, most of them did not visit their homes. Many airlines have even been offering discounts on tickets to increase the passenger traffic to the region, but of no avail,? he adds.

Moreover, remittances to the state have decreased correspondingly. S Paul, Chairman, Paul Merchants Limited, a money exchange firm adds, ?NRI remittances from the UK and European countries are lower this year.? Another money transfer firm, Money Gram, also registered a decline in NRI remittances to Punjab. Pritam Singh Naurangpur, former President, NRI Sabha, Punjab, says, ?Punjabi NRIs have played a significant role in reviving the state economy by investing in hospitality infrastructure and real-estate sectors in the state. Punjab has in the past also benefitted from the philanthropic contributions made by them for religious and developmental purposes in the last five years. This was especially evident in Doaba region, which comprises Nawanshahar, Hoshiarpur, Jalandhar and Kapurthala districts of Punjab.?

He adds, ?NRIs were a major source of investment in real estate. This is likely to decrease now. In both the service sector and the business areas, the Punjabi NRIs are finding that the going has become tough. Layoffs have become a common phenomenon abroad, and NRIs from Punjab have faced the axe. Many of them are now heading back home to build a life for themselves.?