Faced with a series of electoral reverses, hit by desertions and weakened by a long stint out of power, the AIADMK has been like a ship in rough sea for quite a while. Now, as Tamil Nadu gradually moves towards the next round of Assembly elections scheduled for May next year, the state?s main Opposition party is slowly steadying the vessel, getting ready for the fight.

The AIADMK?s troubles began in 2004, when the party (and its allies) lost all seats in the general elections that saw the formation of the UPA government at the Centre. But two years later, when Jayalalithaa?s party lost the Assembly polls held in 2006, there was a silver lining?the AIADMK was not routed as incumbent parties in Tamil Nadu traditionally are. It was a defeat, but an honourable one.

But after a string of by-poll defeats and its lustre-less performance in the Lok Sabha polls last year, the AIADMK seemed to be in trouble. It lost several middle-level leaders to the DMK, and more were said to follow.

It was in this backdrop that the party organised a public meeting in Coimbatore in July, just weeks after the DMK government?s much-hyped World Classical Tamil Conference, which the Opposition boycotted. The venue was symbolic.

Politically, the western belt of Tamil Nadu?the Kongu region?is one of the last remaining strongholds of the AIADMK. The ruling party has not been able to make much headway in this region, which includes Coimbatore, a fact that was again highlighted by the recent Lok Sabha polls. However, aided by power, the DMK had been moving aggressively and has managed to attract senior AIADMK leaders from this region who also have a stand in their respective communities, mainly the most influential Gounders. For the ruling party, any victory from this belt will temper any setbacks from elsewhere in the coming elections.

However, the AIADMK meet was a huge hit. The protest meet saw the participation of thousands of cadres, even more that many of Jayalalithaa?s election meetings last year, which surprised many. Jayalalithaa sensed an opportunity. Soon there was another meet at Tiruchy, a DMK stronghold, which was termed as another success, again due to the massive turnout. And the latest one in the series will be in mid-October, to be organised in Madurai, the bastion of Union minister and DMK strongman MK Azhagiri. The poll bugle is being sounded.

Sources claim the desertions, which even the supremo found difficult to stem a few months ago, don?t appear to be such a major challenge any longer in the AIADMK.

With several months to go for Assembly elections and persisting uncertainties in the alliance equations, it cannot be predicted whether or not the revved-up enthusiasms of cadres can see the party back to power. Sources say the AIADMK is keen to forge an alliance with the Congress and has been continuing its efforts to woo the national party even after it was rejected prior to the last elections.

Long time observers of the party point out that the alliance between these two parties has proven to be mutually beneficial in the hustings. Beyond the math and the inevitable wrangling, the DMK-Congress relationship has largely been stable. However, for the moment, the chances of such an alliance appear to be bleak ? unless Congress managers decide to explore prospects for the party?s expansion by aligning with a weakened AIADMK, in the hope of garnering more seats and therefore a larger political space. Or, Jaya could come up with an irresistible offer.

Vijayakanth and his party, the DMDK, is another potential ally for Jayalalithaa. There are informal discussions in the background, sources indicate, though it is still too early to speculate.

Meanwhile, adding piquancy to the AIADMK?s latest public outing, Jaya TV received as many as seven death threats to its leader, which the party is now using to drum up support ahead of the Madurai meet. The ?Revolutionary Leader? has said she would go ahead with the scheduled programme; her deputies have demanded a CBI probe which the government has agreed to; and her cadres have threatened to form suicide squads to protect her if needed. It is beginning to sound like election time in Tamil Nadu.