Ahead of general elections, the ?influential minority? has climbed back on centrestage in Tamil Nadu. They are the chiefs of parties who can guarantee votes of a small but substantial number that can assure victory in the polls. And they have not decided as yet.
The final decision taken by the PMK and actor-politician Vijayakanth?s DMDK will be crucial in deciding the composition of the next Lok Sabha.
Going by their numbers, these are small outfits, with the PMK claiming 6.71% of the vote in 2004 general elections and DMDK bagging 8.33% in 2006, the year in which it was formed. But both have proven in the past that they can help improve, or seriously harm, the prospects of potential winners, like the DMDK influenced the AIADMK?s tally in the 2006 Assembly elections.
One thread that connects both is the Congress with which both are keen to strike alliances. The PMK has been keen to maintain a good relationship with the Congress since 2004, while Vijayakanth has held meetings with Congress leaders for a potential alliance.
The PMK, a caste-based party, was formed 20 years ago; its leader Dr S Ramadoss is notoriously unpredictable.
The PMK is assured of the six seats it won last time as part of the Democratic Progressive Alliance, a rainbow coalition of UPA partners in Tamil Nadu, whichever side it chooses to be on. But the party has been strident in its opposition to the DMK-led state government for the past two years. On the other hand, without an assured berth at the Centre, joining the AIADMK-led front may not bring enough returns for the party. The PMK has been part of both the NDA and UPA governments at the Centre since 1998.
The DMDK, on the other hand, was born of opposition to ?family politics and corruption?, a charge that could be levelled against the DMK, AIADMK and PMK. Vijayakanth had a running battle with Ramadoss immediately before transforming his fan club into a political outfit. The DMDK contested and won Vanniyar-dominated Virudhachalam, formerly a PMK bastion.
After seeking public support for the first time in the 2006 elections, when he presented his party as the best alternative to the Dravidian majors, it will not be easy for the DMDK to explain an alliance with either one of them.
While the Congress is actively wooing these two outfits into the DMK-led camp, the fallout of the on-going war in Sri Lanka will decide if the Congress is an electoral asset in Tamil Nadu today, or a liability. However, the muted protests on the issue despite eight self-immolations since the last week of January have cast doubts on its efficacy on polling day.
In 2004, the party contested and won 10 seats in Tamil Nadu and its leaders from Puducherry are in Delhi to stake claim for its lone seat that went to alliance partner PMK in 2004. This time, it has demanded 20 seats and may settle for 15.
The more local issues in play are power shortage, corruption, and the law and order situation. The government is counting on a slew of schemes ? from free colour TVs to a kilo of rice for Re 1.
AIADMK general secretary J Jayalalithaa will go on a protest fast on March 9 over the Lankan issue. Though she has sided with Left parties, it is widely believed that she would support the BJP if it has a chance of forming government.
After all, the AIADMK-Left understanding is based on opposition to enemies belonging to a common front, not common enemies per se. The AIADMK has declared its readiness to partner the Congress to deny the DMK another shot at power at the Centre. The Left will have no option other than to turn to the DMK, if Jayalalithaa turns to the BJP.