The ongoing assembly election in the country?s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, is being watched and analysed intensely because of its profound impact on the politics at the Centre. The elections in UP could produce diverse outcomes in terms of its impact on national politics. It could lend stability to the UPA for the next two and a half years, until the 2014 general elections. Indeed, this has been the dominant narrative over the past few weeks that a mini anti-incumbency wave against Mayawati?s misrule will help install a government led by Samajwadi Party (SP) and supported by the Congress, which too is expected to improve its tally substantially in the 403-seat UP assembly. The logical outcome of this narrative would be that the Congress will support SP in UP and SP in return will join the UPA government at the Centre and cushion it against the crippling blows it has received from Mamata Banerjee in recent times.

In fact, Mamata Banerjee?s new passion is to revive the ?Third Front?, a grouping of strong regional parties who may not be comfortable with either the Congress or the BJP. She is said to have discussed this prospect, even if remote at present, with some regional party chieftains, possibly even Mulayam Singh Yadav. Indeed, there was a statement last week by the chief minister of Orissa, Naveen Patnaik, that the Third Front must be revived. The timing of the statement, in the middle of UP elections, was quite significant.

So the politics at the Centre, especially in the context of the UP elections, has become curiouser and curiouser.

A section of the Congress party itself has added a new twist to this complex narrative by saying that its support should not be taken for granted by the SP, which is widely perceived to emerge as the single largest party in the UP assembly.

In fact, there are two contesting views within the Congress. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and some of his senior Cabinet colleagues may want SP to join the government at the Centre and lend stability to overall governance. However, Rahul Gandhi and his dedicated group of younger Congressmen who have worked very hard to revive the party?s fortunes in UP would prefer a phase of President?s rule if SP clearly falls short of a majority and depends critically on the Congress for support. In fact, both Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav, Mulayam?s son who has whipped up a lot of enthusiasm among the youth of UP, were alluding to the prospect of President?s rule in UP. Of course, Akhilesh Yadav claimed the Congress?s strategy of plumping for President?s rule will further shift votes in the favour of SP because the people of UP want a government with a clear majority.

Rahul Gandhi?s motivation to invoke President?s rule is being read as an attempt to ensure that the UP vote remains badly fragmented with no single party getting anywhere near a simple majority. This will create a situation of President?s rule in which the Centre?s writ will run for some time during which the UPA could implement its own development plans for UP. Subsequently, the UP assembly elections could get clubbed with the Lok Sabha polls in 2014. So while Rahul Gandhi thinks the prospect of President?s rule will help in furthering the Congress?s interests, Akhilesh Yadav thinks the fear of President?s rule will make voters move evermore towards SP.

So the politics around the prospect of President?s rule in UP is a very interesting one. The Congress believes that even a defeated Mayawati would be all too willing to lend her 20 Lok Sabha MPs to support the UPA on critical issues of governance at the Centre. So the Congress seems to be using various levers to consolidate its political clout both in UP and the Centre.

One thing seems relatively clear after travelling across the central UP region and parts of Bundelkhand. There seems to be considerable disillusionment against Mayawati?s regime among the swathes of non-dalit electorate who had voted for her party in the 2007 assembly polls. Of course, the vast majority of the dalit vote seems solidly behind her. Her massive rally in Kanpur just before the fourth phase of elections showed her real strength. Overall, her speech at this rally was somewhat defensive, betraying a sense that there was some anti-incumbency factor working against her party. She, therefore, invoked the fear among dalits that after decades of political toil they had won power in India?s most populous state and that they must ensure the status quo remained. Otherwise the dalit samaj will be back to where they were in the power structure?right at the bottom. She cleverly blamed the Centre for the development deficit in UP. ?The Centre has not been cooperating with us by refusing to provide more funds. Even when I try to involve the private sector in a public-private partnership, the Centre comes in the way,? she thunders.

Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, counters the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and SP by saying 22 years of their rule has given nothing to UP except corruption and crime. Rahul Gandhi?s repeated assertion that after 22 years of bad governance UP needs to give the Congress a chance seems to resonate with the young voters at some level. The subtext of Rahul?s political signalling is that if the electorate did not give anyone a clear majority, it would naturally be a mandate for President?s (read Centre?s) rule.

The vote in UP is the most fragmented in the country. It is so fragmented that the single largest party BSP, led by Mayawati, could form the government with a simple majority of 206 seats (out of 403) with just 30% of the votes. In no other state can you win a simple majority with just 30% vote share. This is UP?s peculiarity. So if Mayawati?s vote share drops by 2-3%, and these votes get somewhat scattered across the Congress, SP and BJP, a hopelessly hung assembly is a certainty.

Therefore, if SP, as a single largest party, is more than 40 short of a majority then the prospect of President?s rule would kick in. However, the Congress?s hard stance on President?s rule could simply be posturing at this moment, and might change after the election. It all depends on how the popular mandate is read.

mk.venu@expressindia.com