With the Election Commission issuing the notification for by-elections in two parliamentary and three Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh to be held on April 12, the countdown for a bitter battle in the Hindi heartland has begun. The reason why these polls are so significant, especially in the two Lok Sabha seats?Azamgarh and Khalilabad? is that these are being treated as a mini general election by all political parties.
For the Congress, this poll is significant as it is the first one to be held after the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government came out with its populist Budget. Though the party is not a major player in UP politics, its performance will be judged in the light of the Budget. According to state Congress leaders, their major poll plank will be the Budget. The party is still on the lookout for strong candidates.
For the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), too, these by-polls are a prestige issue as the party had lost the last Lok Sabha by-poll for the Ballia parliamentary seat in December last to its political rival, the Samajwadi Party (SP). The BSP now has to prove that its sarva samaj combination, which brought it to power in May, last year, still holds water. Moreover, by-polls are being held in both these seats because the outgoing members of Parliament won the last election on BSP tickets but later switched over to SP, resulting in their losing their membership under the anti-defection law. In fact, one of the MPs, Balchandra Yadav, is now the SP?s candidate from Khalilabad. Significantly, the BSP has fielded Akbar Ahmed ?Dumpy? ? once a Sanjay Gandhi loyalist ? in Azamgarh.
Apart from this, the Mayawati-led government in the state is almost a year-old now. These elections would also act as a referendum on her government?s policies.
For SP, the main opposition party in the state, these Lok Sabha elections are prestigious because it has to prove that the Ballia result was not a fluke and that the party has regained its strength after the drubbing it faced in the last Assembly elections. However, infighting has already raised its head within SP as the party has not given a ticket to Ramakant Yadav, Azamgarh?s outgoing MP, who won the seat on a BSP ticket and then switched over to SP. Instead, the party has given a ticket to Balram Yadav, who was a minister in the Mulayam Singh government. According to reports, Ramakant is planning to contest the election on his own.
As regards the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the strength that it gained from the Ram temple issue has withered. Even so, these by-polls are a litmus test for the party as the general elections are due next year. If the BJP performs well in this crucial state, it will add weight to its message that it is the party-in-waiting to form the next government in Delhi.