Admirably realist on China

Admiral Sureesh Mehta?s analysis of the rise of China and its implications for India?s national security strategy are a welcome departure from the ?foolish romantics? on the Left and the ?stupid hawks? on the Right of the Indian political spectrum. Admiral Mehta, who retires this month as the Chief of Naval Staff and the Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee, has constructed a rare realist argument in India for coping with the rapid transformation of China into a great power.

The following is a deconstruction of Admiral Mehta?s speech at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi on Monday. It is arguably the sharpest articulation of our national security strategy by any military leader since the late General K Sundarji, who served as India?s Army Chief in the late 1980s. For this reason, we must clearly understand what the Admiral meant.

Is Admiral Mehta being defeatist when he says India cannot compete with China?

No, he is simply being realist. Strategy is about relating ends and means. When a nation defines its political objectives out of proportion to its resources, there is a real danger that it will embark on adventurism and fall flat on its face. Admiral Mehta is stating the facts on the ground when he reminds us that ?China?s GDP is more than thrice that of ours and its per capita GDP is 2.2 times our own?, and that ?India?s annual defence expenditure (approximtely $30 billion for 2008-09) is less than half of what China spends on defence?.

Does Mehta?s pragmatism mean giving up on our long-standing quest for parity with China?

Not at all. Admiral Mehta is saying if it wants parity with China, India must do a lot of other things, including for example achieving higher annual economic growth rates, building strong ties with other great powers and undertaking significant security sector reforms. Admiral Mehta is not throwing in the towel on China. He is urging our political classes to think clearly about the most efficient and credible ways of responding to the rise of China. He is warning the nation that China is moving purposefully to consolidate what it calls ?comprehensive national power?. Admiral Mehta is suggesting if India does not move quickly, and cleverly, it might soon be impossible to catch up with China.

What does the Admiral mean when he says, ?we neither have the capability nor the intention to match China, force for force??

Most media reports latched on to the first part of Admiral Mehta?s formulation and missed the more important second, qualifying part, ?force for force?. In responding to China?s impressive military modernisation, Admiral Mehta is warning against a ?dumb? approach of matching every Chinese weapons system with a similar one of our own. Admiral Mehta said on Monday: ?The traditional or ?attri-tionist? approach of matching ?Division for Division? must give way to harnessing modern technology for developing high situational awareness and creating a reliable stand-off deterrent.?

Could you translate that into English please?

Sure. Admiral Mehta is calling for an asymmetric response to China?s military build-up. His advice is, don?t mimic China, but think of a strategy that plays to Delhi?s strengths and works within our limitations. Our nuclear doctrine, formulated under the NDA government, for example, states that India does not want to match the size and sophistication of the Chinese nuclear arsenal. So long as India has a small but invulnerable nuclear deterrent, say based on submarines, Delhi can be sure of its ability to prevent nuclear blackmail by others.

How does the asymmetric strategy work in the area of conventional arms?

Admiral Mehta is focusing on technology and moving away from the usual emphasis on the numbers of weapons. He is calling for the massive use of surveillance and reconnaissance technologies that provide real time information of any domain and integrating the sensors and the weapons systems to produce maximum battlefield effectiveness. The awareness of the situation combined with long-range weapons, Admiral Mehta is saying, should be our answer to Chinese military modernisation.

Do asymmetric strategies work in the real world?

Of course, they do. That precisely is what China is doing in trying to undermine America?s overwhelming conventional military superiority. Take for example the maritime domain. The US controls the sea space adjacent to China with its powerful warships and aircraft carriers. China has not built aircraft carriers in trying to counter the US naval dominance. It has built instead a large number of submarines to complicate the American naval strategy in the Western Pacific.

Why does Admiral Mehta emphasise cooperation with China?

Unlike our arms chair hawks on China, Admiral Mehta has the responsibility to deal with the reality of Beijing?s growing military power. Recognising the dangers of an unwanted confrontation with Beijing, Admiral Mehta is emphasising both internal as well as external balancing of China within a cooperative framework. Internal balancing is about strengthening India?s capabilities through military modernisation and security sector reform. External balancing is about expanding India?s engagement with other great powers like the US, Russia and Japan as well as Southeast Asia and leverage it to improve relations with China.

The third leg of Admiral Mehta?s China tripod is a pro-active bilateral cooperation to reduce the trust-deficit between the two Asian giants.

The author is a professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore