India to be world’s 3rd largest car market by 2030: Study

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New Delhi, Nov 30, Dec 01 2005, 00:58 IST

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At a time when auto industry honchos in India refuse to predict even the next quarter's growth, US-based consultancy Keystone-a subsidiary of LaSalle Consulting Associates-has forecast that India will become the world's third largest automobile market by 2030, behind just China and the US. An ageing population and increasing costs of ownership will see auto market shrinking in Japan, Korea and Europe while increasing per capita income will fuel the two Asian giants' growth, it says.

Over the next quarter century, emerging markets will replace the mature markets of America, Europe and Japan as the primary driver of sales growth and will account for 69% of industry sales and 87% of vehicle registrations. Over the next 25 years, more motor vehicles will be sold than in the entire history of the industry, the report says.

The projected size for China is 62 million and for US 23 million. The size of the Indian vehicle market is forecast to cross 20 million (assuming a consistent GDP growth rate of 6%) from the one million plus vehicles sold in 2004. This amounts to a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 12%. The next two countries in the pecking order would be Brazil and Japan, whose sales are projected to be in single digit millions. Currently, the top five motor vehicle markets are the US, Japan, China, Germany and the UK.

In 2017, China is projected to become the world largest market for motor vehicle sales, surpassing the United States. Around the same time,

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