A 10% GDP growth might not be achievable in the 12th Plan in the wake of uncertain international situation, Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said on Wednesday. The Approach to the new Plan would consolidate on the inclusive growth goals of the UPA government. Iinitial indications are that the benefits of growth is fast reaching the masses, resulting in reduction in poverty by 5 % points in the Eleventh Plan.

In an informal briefing to newspersons on the eve of the Full Planning Commission meeting scheduled to finalise the draft Approach Paper for the 12 th Plan, Ahluwalia said decline in poverty figures may actually be higher as the latest sample estimate was taken in 2009, when the Indian economy was under pressure from a drought at home and financial melt down elsewhere globally.

During the mid-term review of Eleventh Plan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had indicated that growth momentum in the economy would be consolidated in the 12th Plan to take it upto double digit levels. However, prevailing high levels of inflation, global pressure on food and oil prices and concerns over debt situation in industrialised countries leading to higher interest rates has forced the panel to lower projections on growth targets for 12th to 9-9.5%.

The deputy chairman said reduction in poverty has been estimated Planning Commission member Abhijit Sen which needs to be verified through a large sample survey to arrive at an officially acceptable level. According to Sen, poverty in the year 2009-10 has fallen to 32% level from a high of 37% as per the 2004-05 estimate done Suresh Tendulkar. The Tendulkar Committee’s observation has been adopted by the Commission and the same methodology will be used to verify Sen’s finding on poverty figures.

?Based on the NSSO sample of 2009-10, official numbers would be made public later, but no major deviation was likely,? Ahluwalia said. As per NSSO’s thin sample survey for the 2007-08, the poverty figures had actually come down to 29% levels but Ahluwalia said that ever since then global and domestic conditions changed adversely slowing the economy.

He said room from greater reduction in poverty is possible as prevailing circumstances had jacked up poverty numbers. In wake of this, the Commission has already ordered a second sample survey of poverty for 2011-12 and results of this sample would be available in 2013. This is aimed at substantiating government’s claim that a major dent in poverty has been reached because of inclusive growth strategy of the UPA government.

On growth, Ahluwalia said that the target of 10% growth during 12th Plan period was not feasible as international situation remained uncertain putting a moderating affect on growth. ?But in a five year horizon we can target 9% growth,? he said.

Ahluwalia said the meeting tomorrow is aimed at apprising the Prime Minister on the views of the Commission relating to the Approach to the 12th five year Plan ( 2012-17). It is a precursor to adopting the Approach paper to the 12th Plan, which will be made public in a month?s time. The Approach paper will then finalised for adoption first by the Cabinet and then finally by the National Development Council. The process of finalising the draft of the new Plan will begin thereafter. The Plan will commence from April, 2012.