Tight WTC final race give India no room for error

Sri Lanka have long ceased to be a fearsome opponent, and their victories, even at home, are not as routine as they used to be in the era of Muttiah Muralitharan, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene.

The win would provide a bit of breathing space for Shubman Gill & Co, but truth be told, their qualification for the World Test Championship (WTC) final remains a long shot. That’s because not only do India have to win almost every remaining Test left in their cycle, but a lot of results elsewhere have to go their way as well.

And that’s where the bigger problem lies. There are four teams above India in the WTC chart. One of them is Bangladesh, whom India would have been confident of overtaking based on pedigree and track record. Granted that Bangladesh have beaten Pakistan home and away in recent times and even won a Test in New Zealand, they were still not considered among major sides.

That’s until Darwin happened. What the Bangla Tigers achieved in Australia’s Northern Territory was not a smash-and-grab, but a fully deserved victory.

The narrative going into the game was whether the Test would go beyond three days – prompted, to a degree, by Bangladesh being blown away for 54 by a Cricket Australia XI made up of little-known players a handful of days before the game. But as it turned out, it was the hosts who were struggling to take the Test into Day 4. The nine-wicket win for Bangladesh – touted as one of the biggest upsets in the history of Test cricket – didn’t seem an upset at all, based on the balance of play as the visitors dominated from start to finish. The narrative of the Test series was set, regardless of events in the second and final game in Mackay.

Tough road ahead

It only makes India’s job tougher, especially with most of the contenders for the WTC final playing against each other in the remaining series of the current cycle. It goes without saying that India would have to push for victory in the second Test, starting on Sunday at Colombo’s Sinhalese Sports Club.

But with four teams miles ahead of them in the table, even a win would guarantee nothing. The two Tests in New Zealand – always a tricky proposition – are likely to decide whether India would have any realistic chance of qualification going into the final months of the WTC cycle. The games in Wellington’s Basin Reserve – with the strong winds – and the seamer-friendly Hagley Oval in Christchurch would provide a stern test, especially with the Kiwis harbouring genuine hopes of making the final themselves. It has been more than 17 years since India won a Test in that country, the Black Caps winning three of the six Tests since, drawing the others, while also coming out on top in the inaugural WTC final in 2021 in England.

Even if India are still in contention going into the new year, they have the small matter of five Tests at home against the Australians. Now, it would be more than 22 years by then since the most successful country in the history of Test cricket won a series in India, and their recent travails have robbed them of much of their aura, but India would be at no luxury to take anything for granted.

In all likelihood, the hosts would have to aim for something like a 4-0 win on home turf. Preparing spin-friendly pitches is likely to be the modus operandi, but India’s recent experiences on such surfaces hasn’t been too happy. The 0-3 defeat to New Zealand in 2024 and 0-2 reversal against South Africa prove that Indian batsmen don’t feel at home on such tracks.

Australia’s prospects would also be impacted by the two series prior to their trip to the subcontinent – away to South Africa and at home to New Zealand. And with all three teams – as well as Bangladesh – sitting above India on the table, one team’s loss could be another team’s gain, thereby not helping the cause of Gill’s team too much.

Other contenders

Bangladesh has Tests in Johannesburg and Centurion in November and are also expected to host England and West Indies in the cycle, even though the dates and venues have yet to be announced. So, the team led by Najmul Hossain Shanto have a lot of scope to improve upon their current standing.

New Zealand, who sit third on the table, also play two Tests each against Sri Lanka at home and Pakistan away. Judging by the recent performances of these two teams, the Kiwis would hope to gain vital ground in the race to the WTC final, given that their other two assignments are against Australia and India.

South Africa are breathing down Australia’s neck at the top of the table and the three Tests between them in October – at Durban, Gqeberha and Cape Town – are absolutely vital in the context. Those will be followed by the two Tests against Bangladesh and three against England, before a trip to Sri Lanka in early 2027 for two Tests. The Proteas, thus, have a lot of scope for improving their chances of giving themselves a shot at defending their WTC crown.

With series lined up against South Africa and India (away) and New Zealand (at home), Australia would need to get their house – especially their batting – in order if they want to secure a third consecutive berth in the final. It should concern them no end that Steve Smith, coming to the end of a glorious career, is still their best batsman, with none of the others oozing reliability. Their top three is extremely brittle and while Cameron Green seems to have turned a corner with the bat, that would hardly seem enough.

Their legendary bowling attack is still capable of running through sides, but how long they can continue to do so remains to be seen, especially with their batting line-up not doing them any favours.

In a nutshell, the race to the WTC final is wide open. Teams would aim to do their part of the business while keeping an eye on what the others are doing. Captain Gill and head coach Gautam Gambhir would know that anything less than victory at the SSC would push India further back in the tightest of multi-team contests.