What a Trump victory means for Russia: No surprises, just national interests

With Donald Trump now the President-designate of the United States, speculation continues regarding the potential impact of his leadership on US-Russia relations. While some in the West and Ukraine have suggested that Trump’s victory could lead to an end to the war in Ukraine, Russia’s perspective remains grounded in realism.

According to Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Moscow sees little difference in the outcome of the election, as US policy toward Russia remains largely consistent, irrespective of who occupies the White House.

Russia’s Stance on the US. Election Outcome

In a media briefing on October 5, 2024, Zakharova addressed questions about Russia’s expectations from the US election and the possibility of Trump’s return to the presidency. She made it clear that, no matter who wins, Russia’s approach to its national security and international interests would not change significantly. She pointed out that the US. has maintained a “two-party consensus” on its confrontational stance toward Russia, which means that, for Moscow, the results of the election will not bring about any major shifts in relations.

“The outcome of the election makes no difference for Russia,” Zakharova stated. “There is a bipartisan consensus in the United States regarding its policy toward our country. Regardless of who sits in the White House, Russia will continue to safeguard its national security and defend its interests.”

Zakharova’s remarks reflect Russia’s broader view that US foreign policy has long treated Russia as a strategic rival, and any changes will only come if the US presents proposals that align with Russian interests. Russia will not be swayed by election results but will remain focused on protecting its security, a priority that transcends the US political cycle.

Rhetoric vs. Reality: Trump’s Stance on Russia

While Trump’s rhetoric on Russia has often been a topic of debate, his policies during his first term were marked by both cooperation and confrontation. Critics accused him of being overly sympathetic to Russian President Vladimir Putin, while others argued that his approach helped avoid direct military escalation. Despite his previous statements about bringing the war in Ukraine to an end, Zakharova’s comments suggest that Russia is not placing undue expectations on Trump to bring about a resolution to the conflict.

Trump’s stance on Russia has been inconsistent—praising Putin at times while also imposing sanctions and supporting NATO allies. His critics have often pointed out that his “friendlier” tone toward Moscow could lead to dangerous consequences, while supporters have seen it as a path to potential stability. However, Zakharova emphasized that Russia does not view the US. election results as a game-changer in terms of policy.

“We will evaluate any new proposals from the US. based on whether they align with our interests,” she said. “But ultimately, Russia will continue to protect its national security regardless of the US election outcome.”

National Security and Global Focus

Zakharova also highlighted that it would be logical for the next US president, regardless of who it is, to focus more on domestic issues and the challenges facing the US rather than pursuing foreign interventions far from American shores. She stressed that Russia hopes the US will prioritize solving its internal problems, especially amid the deepening divisions within the country.

“Any new president should focus on the problems at home,” Zakharova remarked, underscoring the Russian perspective that the US should avoid foreign entanglements, particularly those that do not align with its immediate interests.

This reflects Russia’s broader position that US foreign policy, especially concerning conflicts like the war in Ukraine, should not be driven by ideological considerations but rather by pragmatic solutions that benefit the American people. Russia has long advocated for a reduction in unnecessary foreign military engagements and believes that the next US president should direct attention to stabilizing domestic affairs first.

Russia’s Strategic Calculations

Zakharova’s comments make it clear that Russia remains steadfast in its approach to foreign policy, regardless of who occupies the US presidency. For Russia, the US election is not a moment to place hope in a particular candidate but rather a reminder to stay focused on its own national security and strategic interests.

While a Trump presidency may indeed shape US domestic politics and foreign policy, Russia is not expecting any sudden shifts in US-Russia relations. The bipartisan consensus in the US confrontation with Russia remains strong, and Moscow will continue to prioritize its national security and defence. As always, Russia’s actions will be dictated by its interests, not by changes in the US political landscape.