As Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani surges toward victory in New York City’s mayoral race, a shift is happening in the city’s real estate market. New Yorkers, particularly wealthy ones, are bracing for what they fear could be a dramatic change to the city’s economic landscape under Mamdani’s leadership.
According to a recent poll conducted by J.L. Partners for Daily Mail, nearly one million New Yorkers are already preparing to leave should Mamdani win the election.
The poll, which surveyed 500 registered voters between October 23-26, found that 9% of respondents would “definitely” leave the city, with an additional 25%, nearly 2.12 million people, considering it.
If these predictions hold, the exodus would be one of the largest in American history, with the number of departing residents equivalent to the population of Washington D.C., Las Vegas, or Seattle.
With Mamdani poised for victory, these numbers indicate widespread alarm among city residents about his progressive policies, including rent freezes, fareless buses, and a drastic overhaul of New York’s economy and tax structure.
For many, his promises of free childcare and expanded public services carry a heavy price tag, and polls show that most New Yorkers are concerned about the long-term effects.
Why are New Yorkers selling up?
Experts point to the growing anxiety among wealthy New Yorkers as the catalyst for a major shift in the city’s real estate market. High-end properties are being snapped up by those seeking refuge in less-taxed and less-regulated areas, most notably in suburban Connecticut and Westchester County.
New York realtor Jay Batra told Daily Mail that many of his clients, who had previously been looking at multimillion-dollar apartments in Manhattan, are now pulling the plug on their purchases.
“These people are not thrilled about the possibility of Mamdani winning,” he explained to DailyMail. “They don’t want to hear about his rent freeze and socialist policies.”
Indeed, real estate brokers in Connecticut’s Greenwich and Westchester are reporting a frenzy reminiscent of the early days of the pandemic, when residents fled the city in droves.
In Greenwich, available listings have dropped to historic lows, with sales prices hitting $2.1 million in September, a 11.9% increase from the previous year.
In Scarsdale, Westchester, a four-bedroom colonial was listed for $1.49 million and within days had received more than 75 viewings and 24 bids, ultimately selling for over $700,000 above the asking price.
“Our open houses are the hottest ticket in town,” said Zach Harrison of Compass, who was involved in the sale to New York Post.
Similarly, in Southport, Connecticut, the luxury housing market is seeing a spike in demand. Libby McKinney Tritschler, a real estate agent in the area, described her $12 million waterfront listing as attracting more interest than ever before.
“There have been a lot of rumours over the last few months about the mayoral race in New York,” she said. “I think there will be a little bit of an exodus if the mayoral race goes the way they’re claiming it will,” she explained to New York Post.
Florida is prepping for the influx
Florida is already preparing for an influx of New Yorkers. Scott Singer, the Republican mayor of Boca Raton, said that business leaders are already making plans for the anticipated exodus, which he believes could hurt New York City’s economy.
“With more taxes and likely rises in crime and other problems coming under Mamdani, they’re looking to come to our low-tax, safe, and vibrant business ecosystem,” he explained to DailyMail.
Singer added that the trend of New York businesses leaving for Florida may mirror California’s recent loss of high-income earners and companies fleeing to more business-friendly states.
The shift, he warned, could be a replay of the lessons New York learnt in the 70s and 80s, when the city’s economic decline led to a mass exodus.
Mamdani, who has promised to freeze rents, eliminate bus fares, and overhaul the city’s tax system, has attracted both fervent support and fierce opposition.
His proposals, including a tax increase on those earning over $1 million and a higher corporate tax rate, have sparked widespread fear of a business flight.
Polls show that Mamdani is on track to win the election, with 45% of decided voters backing him, compared to 31% for Cuomo and 22% for Republican Curtis Sliwa.
As Mamdani edges closer to victory, concerns over rising crime, antisemitism, and economic decline are weighing heavily on voters’ minds.
According to the poll, 43% of New Yorkers believe the number of businesses in the city will decrease under Mamdani, while 45% expect crime to worsen.
In particular, 47% of respondents foresee an increase in crime and violence, and 39% are concerned that the risk of terrorism will grow. Even among Democrats, many are divided 32% expect antisemitism to rise, and 33% fear crime will increase.