With New York City heading into a decisive mayoral election, prediction markets are placing their bets on Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani. On Polymarket, Mamdani has a 91% chance of victory, while Kalshi gives him a 90% chance, a strong lead over Republican Curtis Sliwa and former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an Independent, and are currently sitting on 8% and 1% respectively.
Betting market prediction: Zohran Mamdani takes lead in NYC mayoral race
After the NYC poll survey showed voters favouring Mamdani despite Cuomo and Sliwa closing the gap, betting markets are also placing the young socialist in a strong winning position. Mamdani’s dominance hasn’t waned, even after Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race in September or when billionaire Elon Musk endorsed Cuomo in a last-minute push.
According to data from Polymarket and Kalshi, $459 million has been wagered on the New York City mayoral race alone, $381 million on Polymarket and $78 million on Kalshi, making it one of the most heavily bet-on elections of the year.
However, not everyone is happy with Mamdani’s rise in popularity, which has only grown further after he defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary earlier this year. It has sparked anxiety among Wall Street leaders and New York’s billionaire class. The young lawmaker is advocating free city buses, rent freezes, and city-owned grocery stores, policies that have rattled the city’s financial elite. According to a Forbes report, a massive $22 million has been poured into an anti-Mamdani campaign by 26 billionaires, 16 of whom live in New York City.
Democrats lead in New Jersey and Virginia
Across the river in New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic congresswoman and former Navy pilot, is also likely to win the governor’s race. Both Kalshi and Polymarket give Sherrill around an 86% chance of victory over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Though most polls show her leading by single digits, the betting odds suggest a more positive trend. So far, over $11.8 million has been wagered on the New Jersey race through Kalshi.
In Virginia, the outlook is even more one-sided. Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is likely to win over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Polymarket puts Spanberger’s odds at 98%, while Kalshi lists her at 96%. The market has seen about $3.6 million in trading volume so far.
A recent NBC News poll showed that only 28% of respondents have a favourable view of the Democratic Party, while President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains dismal in most surveys. When asked which party they’d prefer to control Congress, 50% of respondents still chose Democrats, compared to 42% favouring Republicans.