On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump is set to assume the role of the US president for the second time. Known for his unconventional approach to international politics during his first term (2017-2020), Trump’s second presidency, often referred to as “Trump 2.0,” promises to reshape global geopolitics further. His foreign policy decisions in the past, such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iran Nuclear Deal, and his direct negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, have had far-reaching consequences on international relations. This article explores the potential changes in international politics under Trump’s second term and reflects on the state of India-US relations during his first term.

Trump and India: A Dynamic Relationship

During his first term, the India-US relationship evolved into a multifaceted partnership. In 2016, as a candidate, Trump famously declared his admiration for India, saying, “I am a big fan of Hindus, big fan of India, big, big fan.” This statement helped bolster his appeal among the Indian-American community, one of the wealthiest and politically influential ethnic groups in the US. This outreach was not just rhetorical; his administration actively sought to cultivate stronger ties with India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump after his victory in 2016. The year 2017 marked the beginning of an intense phase of engagement. Modi visited the US in July 2017, where Trump expressed support for India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and other international security forums. Their joint statement also criticized Pakistan for supporting terrorism. This set the tone for further collaboration between the two countries, particularly in defense and energy sectors.

In 2017, India imported its first shipments of US crude oil, a significant development that underscored growing economic ties. Additionally, the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in November 2017, with leaders from India, the US, Japan, and Australia, signaled a shift toward greater strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

Strengthening Security and Defense Ties

In 2018, the US and India continued to deepen their defense and strategic relations. The two countries signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) during a 2+2 foreign and defense ministers’ meeting in New Delhi. This agreement facilitated the transfer of secure communication equipment, thus enhancing real-time intelligence-sharing and military cooperation. India also achieved Strategic Trade Authorization (STA-1) status, which simplified high-tech exports from the US to India.

That same year, despite the looming threat of US sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) due to India’s deal with Russia for S-400 air defense systems, the US refrained from imposing penalties. This was a clear indication of the growing bilateral cooperation between Washington and New Delhi.

Economic and Trade Challenges

While India-US ties flourished in many areas, trade relations experienced some bumps. In 2019, President Trump criticized India’s trade barriers and revoked India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status, which had allowed Indian goods to enter the US market with reduced tariffs. This move was seen as a response to India’s trade practices, which the US deemed unfair. However, despite these tensions, both countries remained committed to growing their economic ties, with India continuing to be a significant trading partner for the US.

Trump’s proposal to mediate the Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan in 2019 also created a momentary strain. India quickly rejected the offer, emphasizing that the matter should be resolved bilaterally under the Shimla Agreement. Despite the diplomatic discord, the two nations continued their robust defense and strategic collaborations.

The Year 2020: A Turning Point

The year 2020 marked a high point in the relationship between the two countries. Trump’s visit to India in February 2020 was a grand affair, with events like the “Namaste Trump” rally in Ahmedabad showcasing the personal camaraderie between the leaders. During his visit, Trump lauded the strong India-US ties and elevated the relationship to a “comprehensive global strategic partnership.” In terms of defense cooperation, both nations signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which enabled the sharing of advanced satellite and sensor data.

Additionally, the US reached out to India for medical assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic, with India providing crucial hydroxychloroquine supplies to the US. The pandemic not only highlighted the importance of India as a global supplier of essential medicines but also reinforced the deepening ties between the two nations.

Looking Ahead: Trump 2.0 and Global Geopolitics

Trump’s second term is expected to bring both continuity and change in global geopolitics. His earlier foreign policy approach was marked by skepticism toward multilateralism and an emphasis on “America First” policies. However, with key figures such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz likely to hold significant positions in his administration, there could be a shift toward strengthening partnerships with strategic allies like India.

Marco Rubio, a staunch India supporter and a China hawk, has been advocating for closer defense and technology ties between the US and India. In 2024, he introduced the “US-India Defense Cooperation Act,” aimed at elevating India’s status as a key US ally, akin to Japan and Israel. His pro-India stance is expected to bolster defense and technological exchanges between the two countries in the coming years.

Mike Waltz, the proposed National Security Advisor, has extensive experience working on India-related issues. He sees immense potential for growth in areas such as pharmaceuticals, defense, energy, and space cooperation. His appointment signals a continuation of the trend of closer defense and economic ties between the US and India.

Key Issues: Immigration, Trade, and the Quad

Under Trump 2.0, two key areas could pose challenges: immigration and trade. Trump has long been a critic of the H1B visa program, which is crucial for many Indian professionals seeking employment in the US. While his administration’s approach to immigration may be more restrictive, his stance on skilled labor could help shape policies that continue to support India’s highly skilled workforce.

Trade could remain a point of contention, as Trump’s earlier rhetoric referred to India as a “Tariff King.” However, as both countries look to enhance their economic partnership, especially in sectors like renewable energy, pharmaceuticals, and defense, trade negotiations will remain a critical issue.

Additionally, President Trump’s focus on the Quad—comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia—signals that the Indo-Pacific region will remain a central area of geopolitical competition, particularly with China. Trump’s expected visit to India in 2025, during his first year in office, underscores the significance of the US-India partnership in shaping the region’s future.

Next four years

Trump 2.0 is poised to further transform global geopolitics with a focus on strategic partnerships, economic ties, and defense cooperation. India-US relations, strengthened during his first term, will continue to grow under Trump’s leadership, with an emphasis on mutual interests in defense, technology, and trade. Despite potential challenges in areas like immigration and trade, the enduring strength of the India-US partnership will likely play a key role in shaping the global order in the years to come.