The Mystery of the Chinese Balloon. It violates international practices.

By Prashant Dikshit

In the realm of strategic initiatives reviving a practice of using a balloon for reconnaissance by the Chinese regime is certainly a mysterious methodology. It needs to be examined. Believed to be quite a simple and a cost effective way of looking into the adversary. But it is very old technology like a weather balloon. And will it work is the cardinal question? On the face of it, it appears to be a publicity drive by the Chinese Regime for the Chinese Academy of Sciences. We are aware that while China already deploys a sprawling satellite network for sophisticated long-range surveillance, Chinese military experts have now highlighted the advantages of lighter-than-air vehicles.Unlike rotating satellites or traveling aircraft, stratospheric airships and high-altitude balloons “can hover over a fixed location for a long period of time” and are not easily detected by radar.But hovering over a spot is not easily possible and balloons will go where the wind takes it and the device does not carry any power propelling capacity. And all radars managing air spaces for civilian traffic will easily detect it.  

Also Read: Chinese Spying balloon over the US Airspace

The Balloons are at an altitude between 60 to 70 thousand feet. This is “near space” and is considered beyond the jurisdiction of National Air Defence Zones and controlled air spaces of countries. It also does not interfere with the Outer Space Treaty. I believe that this is the singular advantage.There is an unconfirmed report that one such balloon has been spotted in the vicinity of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Chinese researchers, both military and civilian, have published more than 1,000 papers and reports on “near space,” many of which focus on the development of “near space flight vehicles.” China has also set up a research center to design and develop high-altitude balloons and stratospheric airships under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a top government think tank.

Reports suggest that these high altitude Balloons have been spotted in parts of USA’s Air Defence network. A US military commander on Monday accepted that the US has a “domain awareness gap” that allowed three other suspected Chinese spy balloons to transit the continental US undetected during the previous administration.That appears to be a political statement. What emerged however was that the American Air Force was working on methodologies to bring the device down without causing harm to its environment and strategic ripples in the North American Continent. It is learnt that they are no suitable aircraft available to undertake these missions to totally immediately stop the balloon from what it is engaged in because it can continue to remain in space for several days despite being hit.

Then there is a unique aspect of legality of bringing down a satellite without its owner’s consent which is beyond its control zones. According to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) rules, the Chinese Civil Aviation organization was expected to issue a NOTAM before launching the balloons. Which it seems has not been done although they are signatories to all ICAO norms.   Although, an FBI team is working  on understanding more about the equipment reclaimed from the balloon shot down over the sea – including what kind of data it could collect and whether it could transmit that in real time. Using a Geosynchronous satellite for real time transmission of the data is feasible but not easily possible considering the power pack onboard the balloons.

An example of advances China has made in this domain is the reported flight of a 100-meter-long (328 feet) unmanned airship known as “Cloud Chaser.” A professor at Chinese University said the vehicle had transited across Asia, Africa and North America in an around-the-world flight at 20,000 meters (65, 616 feet) above the Earth.

According to Chinese state news agency Xinhua, a military expert explains how near-space lighter-than-air vehicles can survey and take higher resolution photos and videos at a much lower cost compared to satellites.An expert at the National University of Defense Technology in China, highlighted the progress by the US, Russia and Israel in developing these vehicles, adding China has also made its own “breakthroughs.”

Also Read: US blacklists 6 Chinese entities over balloon programme

Another scientist on the team told the newspaper that compared with satellites; stratospheric airships are better for “long-term observation” and have a range of purposes from disaster warning and environmental research to wireless network construction and aerial reconnaissance.

US intelligence officials believe the Chinese balloon identified over the US in recent days is part of an extensive, Chinese military-run surveillance program involving a fleet of balloons that has conducted at least two dozen missions over at least five continents in recent years.

Beijing on Thursday said the US  assessment was “likely part of the US’ information and public opinion warfare” against China. It has maintained that the device identified over the US is civilian  in nature, and made by private companies. But what we cannot escape is the Chinese attitude towards the world community in not conforming to international protocols and practices. A freely floating balloon is dangerous.They need to be publicly chastened for these misdemeanors.

The author is a strategic affairs commentator.

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