The political and military landscape of Syria is rapidly shifting as Turkey reopens its embassy in Damascus after a 12-year hiatus, while tensions with Kurdish fighters continue to escalate. Turkey’s military actions and the possible involvement of Israeli forces near Damascus have drawn the attention of the US, which is working behind the scenes to ensure its strategic interests in the region are protected.

Turkey’s Growing Influence in Syria

For over a decade, Turkey and Syria maintained a tense relationship, particularly during the leadership of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, with Assad’s power diminished and now residing in Russia, the dynamics in the region are shifting. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently announced the reopening of Turkey’s embassy in Damascus, signalling a shift in Turkish foreign policy. This move marks a significant change, as the embassy had been closed since 2011 due to deteriorating relations between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Syrian government.

Turkey’s renewed engagement with Syria comes as its forces continue to engage in military actions against Kurdish groups in northern Syria. The Turkish army has been focused on limiting the influence of Kurdish militias, which Ankara considers terrorist organizations. Turkey’s goal is to prevent the formation of an autonomous Kurdish state along its borders, particularly in Kurdistan or Rojava, a region populated predominantly by Kurdish communities. This move comes as the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which include Kurdish fighters, have been a key ally in the fight against ISIS.

The US Faces a Strategic Dilemma

As Turkey increases its military presence in Syria, including recent attacks on Kurdish positions, the United States is closely monitoring the situation. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has engaged in direct talks with Hakan Fidan, expressing concern about Turkey’s growing influence in the region. The US sees Turkey’s aggression against Kurdish fighters as a threat to the Kurdish-led autonomous region in Syria, which has been a crucial ally in the fight against ISIS. Blinken’s visit to Turkey underscores the US’s attempt to balance its relationship with both Turkey and the Kurdish forces on the ground.

Furthermore, the Commander of US Central Command (Centcom), General Michael Kurilla, recently travelled to Israel to discuss Syria’s escalating situation. In meetings with Israeli leaders, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Kurilla discussed potential regional security threats, including the growing presence of Turkish and Israeli forces near Syria. Israel, which has long maintained a military presence in the Golan Heights, has reportedly been preparing for possible military action against Syrian forces in Damascus.

The Kurdish-Turkish Conflict Escalates

One of the most intense flashpoints in Syria is the ongoing conflict between Turkish-backed rebel forces and Kurdish fighters. While Turkey has launched airstrikes against Kurdish positions in northern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes Kurdish fighters, continues to resist Turkey’s expansion. The Kurds of Syria have long aspired to create a unified Kurdistan, incorporating territories from Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. However, this dream has faced significant opposition from Turkey, which views Kurdish militias as an extension of the PKK, a group designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU.

The situation has worsened with the involvement of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist rebel group once linked to al-Qaeda. The group, which has gained significant territory in Syria, is now fighting alongside the Syrian government and Turkish-backed rebels against Kurdish forces. In a recent statement, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani distanced his group from direct confrontation with Israel, saying, “We do not want a conflict with Israel. There is no reason to attack Syria. The world should respect Syrian sovereignty.” Despite this, HTS continues to control large areas, further complicating the regional security situation.

Humanitarian Crisis Deepens Amid Conflict

As the military confrontations intensify, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has reported worsening conditions in northeastern Syria, particularly among displaced populations. Over 80,000 people have been forced from their homes due to the ongoing conflict, with many seeking shelter in inadequate conditions. MSF teams are providing vital assistance, including water, food, and medical supplies, but the scale of the displacement continues to overwhelm relief efforts.

“The situation faced by people who have been displaced is overwhelming,” said Allen Murphy, head of MSF’s programs in Northeast Syria. “People urgently need access to essential services, including healthcare, clean water, and shelter, as the temperature is dropping considerably. The sheer scale of the needs is outpacing the available capacity of responders.”

This humanitarian crisis is further exacerbated by the active fighting between Turkey’s forces, Kurdish militias, and various rebel groups, making it increasingly difficult for aid to reach those in need.

The Road Ahead: A Volatile Future

The situation in Syria remains fluid and highly volatile. As Israel, Turkey, and the US pursue their strategic interests in the region, the humanitarian toll continues to rise. The growing conflict between Turkey and Kurdish forces, coupled with the involvement of regional powers, presents a challenge for those seeking a peaceful resolution.