Europe is witnessing the worst military escalation as the Russian and Ukrainian forces continue the tense standoff. While the White House announcement regarding the ‘in principle’ summit between US President Joe Biden and his Russia counterpart Vladimir Putin may have given some brief respite, those watching the volatile situation say that until the tanks move back and forces return to their bases, nothing concrete can be said right now.
Speaking to FE Online this crisis, Prof Rajan Kumar, School of International Studies, JNU says that Moscow will always have a stronger position. “The US doesn’t seem to be committed to the cause of Ukraine. It will neither offer the NATO membership to Ukraine, nor will it send NATO troops on ground. As a consequence, Russia will always have an upper hand in Ukraine.”
On what will Moscow do next, Prof Ranjan says that “Only country which is prepared for a ‘blitzkrieg’ kind of intervention is Russia. This intervention will happen in two circumstances: first, if Ukraine decides to send its military to regain control in the secessionist Donbas region, and second, if NATO decides to send its army to Ukraine or make it a member. Russia is determined to escalate tension further if the West does not agree to its fundamental demands of no offer of membership to Ukraine and some kind of autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk regions.”
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Apart from European powers, other nations have remained extremely cautious in their approach. India, on its part, has so far issued two travel advisories for its citizens staying in Ukraine. Both bulletins have asked those involved in non-essential work to return home. On New Delhi’s future roadmap n regard
with the Kyiv crisis, Prof Ranjan says that “India’s relationship with the US will not be impacted much by the outcomes in Ukraine. Washington might try to put pressure on New Delhi to cut down its defence imports from Russia, but India is unlikely to come under such pressure. Most of the Indians believe that the US is trying to contain Russia, and the latter has legitimate interests in Ukraine. For New Delhi, it is becoming clear that neutrality is the best policy to pursue amid growing polarisation.”
Prof Ranjan further adds that “Washington’s Biden administration wants to contain Moscow by using Kyiv as a proxy. This strategy is unlikely to succeed given the rift in NATO, and cross-cutting linkages between Russia and Ukraine.” While the American intel reports have consistently given alarming inputs from border areas, Prof Ranjan says that “the United States is interested in a limited level of escalation short of war. Washington can use the Russian threat to iron out the rift in NATO, provide a renewed legitimacy to this organisation, and put pressure on Germany to limit its energy dependence on Russia. But if a real war happens, and Russia makes a credible gain in Ukraine, the credibility of the Biden administration would come under question. He will be blamed for the fiasco. Putin is hardly concerned about his image in the West. His popularity in Russia will soar further.”