As tensions between the United States and China escalate, Bloomberg has highlighted five critical indicators suggesting that a future conflict — potentially even a war — is no longer unthinkable. Amid rising trade hostilities and military maneuvers, experts warn these flashpoints deserve close global attention.
Tariff and trade war escalation
The Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese imports marks a dangerous new chapter in US-China trade relations. History reminds us that trade wars can trigger real wars, as seen in the Pacific during World War II. China’s retaliatory export restrictions and tightening control over rare-earth supplies heighten risks further.
Rising cyberattacks
China’s state-sponsored cyber operations, including programs like Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon, are increasingly targeting US infrastructure. From ports and airports to water utilities and telecom networks, these digital assaults indicate not only Beijing’s capability but also its readiness to test US resilience.
Military pressure on Taiwan
Chinese military aircraft made over 3,000 incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone last year — nearly double the previous year’s total. Such aggressive maneuvers are a clear signal of Beijing’s ambitions over what it calls a “rogue province,” raising the stakes for Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
South China Sea tensions
Beijing’s militarisation of artificial islands in the South China Sea, dubbed the “Great Wall of Sand,” has intensified regional disputes. Maritime harassment against US allies like the Philippines is increasing, especially under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has drawn closer to the US military.
Aggressive naval expansion
China now possesses the world’s largest naval fleet by ship count, surpassing the US with over 360 combatant vessels. With ambitions for a 400-ship force, Beijing’s accelerated naval construction is a strategic move to secure maritime dominance in any future confrontation.
(With inputs from Bloomberg)