By Maj Gen P K Mallick, VSM (Retd)
As the Australian Open (AO) Tennis championship reaches its second week, we are at the business end of the tournament. Eight quarter finalists are identified. There have not been any major upsets in the main draw except a few, which is par for the course.
Who is the favorite to win AO Open – 2024? Anybody who understands a bit of tennis will not put his money against world number one and the defending champion Novak Djokovic.
His records are staggering. A record of 24 Grand Slam titles including 10 AO titles. He holds the most weeks at No. 1. He has the most wins over the top 5 and top 10-ranked players, has won all major and Masters events and the year-end championships at least twice and has a winning head-to-head record over his greatest rivals in one of the strongest eras of tennis.
Djokovic is the only player who has beaten Rafael Nadal at the French Open twice. He considers it to be “the biggest challenge in tennis”.
Last year in 2023, he won all three grand slam tournaments and missed Wimbledon by a whisker. In a pulsating five-setter, he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in the finals. He could not complete the calendar grand slam.
The way he plays now, we are looking at a Calendar grand slam, more than 30 grand slam tournament wins. It is scary.
Analysis of Djokovic’s Game
At 36 years of age, he is the fittest tennis player in the circuit. His athleticism is from another world. The high agility, court coverage and mobility allow him to hit winners from seemingly indefensible positions.
Serve. He does not have the fastest serve in the range of 220 kmph plus. But he dishes out serve at around 200 kmph with pinpoint accuracy. After returning from injury, he remodelled his service. Some credit must be given to that mercurial Goran Ivanišević, one of the finest servers the game has ever seen. Goran is in his box every time.
After Roger Federer, he has the best second service firing with unerring accuracy. If anyone requires any proof, see the match against the Aussie A Popyrin. When at one set all, in the third set, 15-40 down, he landed a 200 kmph second serve right on the sideline. He proceeds to win the set and match.
Return of serve. Greatest ever, Agassi included. Thunderbolt serves come back at your feet with interest before the server can react. Nobody has gotten so many balls back and neutralised so many good serves.
His groundstrokes from both wings are consistent, deep and penetrating.
Forehand. After Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer, he has the finest forehand in modern times. Only left-hander Rafa can match that forehand.
His double-handed backhand is the greatest two-handed backhand of all time due to its effectiveness and accuracy on both sides of the court.
Volley. After Federer’s retirement, nobody can volley better. The only regret is he does not use this weapon often. He can quickly change into a chip and charge or serve and volley seamlessly.
He can slice his way through against anybody. After Federer, he has the best backhand slice.
He can change the pace of the rallies at will, slow down, fast, anything. He can quickly get into the net from the baseline rallies for volley winners.
He can come in GOD mode. Nothing goes through him at that time. He Does not commit any mistake.
If the set goes to the tiebreaker, nobody will put money against him. It is scary if you see his tiebreaker record.
Above all, mentally, he is the strongest and has nerves of steel.
Not averse to change or technology. He was wearing a chip on his chest in the US Open.
Had Becker et al in his coaching team. Once they have given all that they can offer, they are discarded, except for the mercurial Goran. He has a sharp tennis brain. He demands the maximum from his coaching staff.
Any weakness in his game?
Probably, he is not the best smasher of the game. Roger Federer was supreme in overheads. He plays safe, which allows opponents to put one more ball in play.
Drop shot. He does not have drop shots like Carlos Alcazar in his armoury.
After all, he is human.
Age and injury are catching up.Roger has retired since then. Rafa is still struggling after a year-long injury break. During the absence of these three, young guns started claiming the top spot.
Dominic Thiem won the 2020 US Open and reached three other grand slam finals at the 2018 and 2019 French Open 2019 and 2020 AO. He had an injury, and post injury, he has been struggling.
Daniel Medvedev of Russia, the spider, lost to Novak in AO 21. In the same year, Djokovic won again in the French Open final after being two sets to love down. But Medvedev won the US Open 2021, beating Novac in straight sets.
Carlos Alcaraz, the next big thing in men’s tennis, won the 2023 Wimbledon finals, denying Novac the calendar grand slam. In 2022 he won the US open, beating Medvedev. But the 21-year-old Spaniard has not been able to win against Djokovic after that epic Wimbledon final. Djokovic demolished Alcaraz in the Cincinnati 1000 masters, the young Spanish superstar could not reach the finals of US Open to challenge the Serbian masters. He defeated Alcaraz hollow in the semifinals at Turin Nitto ATP semi finals. Novak has the uncanny ability to sort out the young guns. Remember how he handled the fiery maverick Aussie Kyrgios in the Wimbledon finals?
The young guns find a certain 36-year-old standing in the way. The last of the Mohicans would not allow them any grand slam titles unless they can beat him. That isn’t easy.
In the current form, who can beat Djokovic? We have to see among current players who have defeated him recently. A 20-year-old Danish brat, 6’2″ tall, Holger Rune, with a powerful all-court game, had beaten the great man a couple of times when Novac was coming out of an extended break. Rune has reached the Quarterfinals in French, Wimbledon and US Open. He is out of AO- 24. He is still young. He can win grand slams if he keeps improving and sorts out his coach dilemma.
The 6 ft Alex de Minaur, 25 years old Aussie with an electric pair of heels, has recently beaten Novak Djokovic at United Cup quarter-finals at Perth. Djokovic received treatment to his right wrist in his 6-4 6-4 defeat. But he does not have the big weapons to win grand slams. With that powerful forehand, Andrey Rublev took him out in AO- 24, winning the fifth set at love.
The Norwegian Casper Rudd, with an all round game, reached the French Open finals twice. In 2023 NovaK beat him at Ronald Garros in straight sets.
A couple of years back, two tall, powerful players emerged, touted to be the next big thing in men’s tennis.
6 ft 6″ 26 years old Sascha Zverov of Germany, with a huge serve and a hammer of forehand and double handed backhand, reached the US Open finals in 2020 and lost to Dominic Thiem in five sets after winning the first two sets. In the same year in AO, he lost to Thiem again in four sets.
In the 2022 French Open finals, he traded bullets against the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal. He lost the first set in a tie breaker, and was at six all in the second set when that painful ankle injury happened. After surgery, he has come back. He is stagnating. He is unlikely to win a slam unless he improves further.
The 26-year-old, 6 ft 4 inches tall Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece has all the weapons to win a grand slam. He has an all-round game, big serve, and excellent one-handed backhand and volley.
In the 2020 French Open semifinals, he lost to Djokovic in five sets. In 2021, he again lost to Djokovic in French Open finals after winning the first two sets. In the final of AO 2023, he lost to Djokovic in straight sets. His game is stagnating. He probably needs to change his dad as a coach. Stefanos Tsitsipas has been beaten by Taylor Fritz and is out of AO 2024.
Djokovic comfortably beats the Russian Andrey Rublev with a magnificent forehand and improved backhand and serve. In the 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinals, Djokovic gave him a set.
The current state in AO 24.
Djokovic had his share of tough matches at the beginning of the tournament against young guns like D Prižmić of Croatia and A Popyrin of Australia, who came against him, all gun firing. They had nothing to lose. As always, Djokovic absorbed all the pressure and won in four sets against them. That got his engines purring. In the next two matches he blew away Tomás Martín Etcheverry of Argentina and currently the No. 1 French player, Adrian Mannarino, in straight sets with a magnificent display of clinical tennis. His game against Adrian Mannarino was scary, winning 6-0, 6-0, and 6-3. He is primed for the crown.
In the current form, only three players have a chance of beating Djokovic. They have to play at their very best level and Novak may be a little off in his game. In the quarterfinal, he will be up against the American 6 ft 5 inches 26-year-old Taylor Fritz with a potent serve and heavy groundstrokes. But his serve will keep coming back, and then Novak takes control of the rally. Novak will try to win the match in straight sets and attempt to conserve his energy for the semifinals.
On the other side of the draw, Carles Alcaraz will wait across the net in the finals, provided he reaches there. Alcaraz won the 2022 US Open and 2023 Wimbledon. But he has to beat Alexander Zverev and probably Daniil Medvedev to get to the finals —no easy task.
But the only player who has the best chance of beating Djokovic in current form is 22-year-old Jannik Sinner of Italy. Arguably the hardest hitter of tennis today, Sinner has a big serve, a ferocious forehand and a heavy double-handed backhand with great spin.
At the Nitto ATP Finals, Sinner won all of his round-robin matches, notably beating the world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in a third-set tiebreaker. He ultimately lost in a rematch against Djokovic in the final. Djokovic gave only five games to Sinner in the finals. Then, in the Davis Cup semifinal, Sinner faced Djokovic for the third time in 11 days, and became the first player to defeat him in a Davis Cup singles match since Juan Martín del Potro in 2011. It was an epic match that showcased the mental strength of Jannik Sinner.
In the first set. Sinner came out all guns blazing. The world number one could not find answers to the missiles thrown by Sinner. Lost the first set, six two.
The inevitable response from Novak came immediately. Was in God zone tennis. All the unforced errors were cut to zero. The bombs thrown by Sinner came back with interest. Sinner could not figure out what had hit him. Lost the second set six two in no time.
Everybody thought the third set was Novac territory. He does not lose the third set. Simple.
The game was going on as per script. Djokovic did not let Sinner a whiff in his service games. And Sinner was under tremendous pressure in his service games. Somehow, he was holding on.
While serving at four-five in the decider, Sinner was love forty down. Novac had three match points to take his country to the Davis Cup finals—foregone conclusion.
But Sinner did not blink. He kept playing his shots. Miraculously, he saved three match points and held on.
In the next game, Novak was serving. Unbelievable happened. Djokovic blinked. He got broken. Sinner kept his cool. He served out to win the match at seven-five.
Is he the next tennis superstar? We will have to wait and watch. Maybe, by this Sunday we will know the answer.
Not very popular. Despite winning 24 Grand Slam titles, Novak Djokovic is not as popular as Federer and Rafa. Though fiercely competitive, they never misbehaved, smashed rackets, quarreled with the crowd or their own box coaching staff. When winning, Djokovic is all smiles, says nice words about opponents and crowds, and gives good sound bites. But when down, he snarls, misbehaves with the crowd, possibly to pump himself up.
In 2022, at Wimbledon quarterfinals, Sinner was two sets to love up. Novak took an extended toilet break. He came out a different player and routed Sinner in the next three sets. Same with Tsitsipas in another grand slam at the French Open. Does the trick. What does he do in these breaks?
He can stretch the limits of rules. See how much time he takes to serve; it is always at the end of 25 seconds. Nobody has the guts to default him.
He is not like Roger and Rafa in his behaviour. He is people’s champion, and comes at your face. After winning in round of 32 at AO 24, he said Roger did not like him. He had no reason to say that in public. A lot should remain in the locker room, but that is how he is.
In August 2020, Djokovic resigned from the Players Council of the Association of Tennis Professionals and formed the Professional Tennis Players Association (PTPA) to promote the interests of male and female tennis players above a ranking of 500 in singles and 200 in doubles.
I am not a Djokovic fan. I want somebody to beat him in the grand slam finals. New champions should come up. Otherwise, Grand Slam finals are going to be boring and repetitive.
But In their present form, nobody can touch Novak Djokovic in five-set Grand Slam finals. As my heart says, I am tempted to put my money on Jannik Sinner. But my head says, not yet. Put the money on Djokovic.
May the better player on the final day win the AO 2024.
(The author is an Indian Army Veteran)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.