India’s sugar production is expected to rise by 16% to 34.35 million tonnes (MT) in the 2025–26 season (October–September), compared to the current season, due to adequate monsoon rains and higher area, as per the first advance estimate of output by Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
“”With a comfortable sugar balance, India is well-positioned to export nearly 2 MT this season,” ISMA said on Tuesday.
After accounting for a diversion of 3.4 MT for ethanol, the net sugar production during the current season is projected at 30.95 MT while carry forward stock of sweetener as on October 1, 2025 was 5 MT.
With the total availability of 35.95 MT and consumption of sugar projected at 28.5 MT for the current sugar season, ISMA urged the government to announce the export policy at the earliest, so mills can proactively plan their raw and white sugar production strategies in advance.
ISMA, in its executive committee meeting, stated that carry forward stock on October 1, 2026 is likely to be 7.45 MT, sufficient to meet the domestic demand for the first two months of the sugar season when mills start crushing of sugarcane.
Based on post-monsoon pan-India satellite imagery captured in the third week of October 2025, ISMA said the total sugarcane acreage in 2025–26 season is estimated at around 5.73 million hectare (Mha), compared to 5.71 Mha in 2024–25 season indicating a marginal increase over last year.
In Maharashtra, the cane area for the 2025–26 sugar season has increased by 6% to 1.47 million hectare, compared to 1.38 Mha. However in Uttar Pradesh, the cane area has declined by approximately 3% to 2.25 Mha compared to last.
However, the overall condition of the standing crop is significantly better than last year, according to a statement.
Earlier, the sugar industry also demanded revision of minimum sales price (MSP) of sugar which has remained unchanged at Rs 31/kg since February, 2019, while fair and remunerative prices (FRP) has increased by 29% to Rs 355/quintal, which had boosted cost of production to Rs 40.24/kg at present.
The food ministry has indicated that it is considering allowing sugar exports in the 2025-26 marketing year, as surplus stocks accumulate due to lower-than-expected diversion of the sweetener. The government had allowed 1 MT of sugar export in 2024-25 season.
With the oil marketing companies allocating only a “smaller” portion of total requirement for ethanol from sugar-based feedstock for the supply year 2025-26, the sugar industry recently expressed concern that it would lead to surplus stocks of the sweetener, underused distilleries and delayed payments to the farmers in the current season.
According to an ISMA statement, only 2890 million litres of ethanol, just 28% of the total requirement, have been allocated from sugar-based feedstocks for the 2025–26 ESY, compared to 72% or 7610 million litres from grain-based sources – 4780 million litres from maize (45%), and 2830 million litres from rice (22%).