Monsoon rains start to fade in August; but kharif acreage provides glimmer of hope

After a strong start in June and promising performance in July, monsoon rains have started to peter out in August, with the cumulative rainfall now falling below the long period average. While LPA in this season was higher than the last five-year average till the end of July, “on a cumulative basis (from June 1 to August 5), the South West monsoon has been 1.1% below the long period average (LPA),” a CARE Ratings report said on Monday. The precipitation deficiency has continued for the third consecutive week; however, it moderated during the week that ended August 5, 2020.

Despite the fall in monsoon rains, kharif acreage is still higher than the last year levels at 10% more than the corresponding period of the previous year. The same can be attributed to early onset of monsoon and widespread rainfall across regions which led to near completion of sowing activities. Monsoon rains are instrumental to the kharif acreage since India still depends heavily on rainfall for agricultural purposes.

From 1st June to 5th August, spatial distribution of rainfall has moderated marginally with the country India receiving 492.9 mm rainfalls, which is 1% lower than normal LPA (498.3 mm). August has been proving turbulent for monsoon rains with the precipitation level lower by 12.7% than the LPA in the week ending August. While a majority of the country has received large excess to normal rainfalls whereas, about 21% of the regions received deficient rainfalls in the ongoing monsoon season so far. “Out of 36 sub-divisions, 19 received normal rainfalls, 10 sub-divisions recorded excess rainfalls while precipitation was large excess in one sub-division. Only 6 sub-divisions have witnessed deficient rainfall as on July 22, 2020,” the report said.

The regions which have received normal rainfall include Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka. Coincidentally, these states have higher agriculture predominance. States which have received deficient rainfall include Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Rajasthan, Dadar and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu.