The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) on Wednesday lowered the sugar production estimate to 26.4 million tonne (MT) from 27.2 MT in January, 2025 mainly because of reduced sugarcane yield in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which has brought down cane availability.
It has also revised downward diversion of 3.5 MT of sugar towards ethanol production from 3.7 MT projected in January, 2025
However, this will not impact the domestic supplies or prices, and the carry forward stock at the beginning of next season (2025-26) starting on October 1 would be around 5.4 MT.
Opening stock at the beginning of the current sugar season on October 1 was 8 MT.
The closing sugar stocks for the 2024-25 season would be higher than the normative requirement of two months’ production, estimated at 4.5 MT, according to ISMA.
Millers said that the retail sugar prices will hover around Rs 43-44/kg close to same level as last year. Retail inflation in sugar and confectionary category was only 2.16% in February, 2025 on year.
Supported by a favourable southwest monsoon in 2024 and good water availability in reservoirs, planting for 2025-26 season has reportedly improved over this year in Maharashtra and Karnataka, ISMA stated.
It noted that the varietal replacement activity in Uttar Pradesh and other north Indian states has shown marked improvement. This would also result in better yields and recovery in 2025-26 sugar season in these regions also.
Around 0.3 MT of the estimated 1 MT of sugar meant for exports has been shipped out so far. After restricting the sweetener exports last sugar season, the government in January had allowed the exports of sugar in the ongoing 2024-25 (October-September), after taking into consideration domestic availability and diversion towards ethanol production.
ISMA also stated that the cane payments have accelerated and approximately 80% of cane payment has been done for the 2024-25 sugar season. “This marks an increase from the 69% paid from mid January, 2025 onwards. In addition to this, 99.9% cane payment for 2023-24 sugar season has also been done so far,” it stated.
Industry projects mustard production at 11.58 MT, agri ministry’s estimate 12.87 MT
The mustard production for the 2024-25 crop year is estimated at 11.52 MT, a decline of around 5% compared to previous year’s record output of 12.09 MT because of lower acreage, according to a survey released on Wednesday by a trade body of edible oil processor – Solvent Extractors’ Association.
This projection is against the agriculture ministry’s projection of an mustard output of 12.87 MT in the current rabi season.
However the trade body has predicted mustard prices to go down below minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 5950/quintal as arrival picks up in the next couple of weeks. Mustard oil has more than 42% share in domestic cooking oil output.