The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that India’s stalled monsoon is likely to gain momentum in the next 3-4 days and could cover key rice, soybean, cotton and sugarcane growing regions in the southern, central and western states.
In a release, the weather office said that heat wave conditions over East India and the adjoining areas is likely to abate gradually from today onwards and that conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of south Peninsular India, some parts of Odisha, some more parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh during next 2-3 days. It also stated that very heavy to extremely heavy falls over Northeast India and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim very likely will continue during next 2 days and decrease gradually thereafter. So far in June, India has received 33 per cent lower rainfall than normal, although in some states the deficit is as high as 95 per cent.
The agriculture sector is one of the worst-hit sectors during heatwaves in India, which significantly contributes to the economy. The sector accounts for around 16 per cent of the country’s GDP. The rising temperature and heat wave conditions also affect labour productivity, crop production and quality causing lower yields. Furthermore, the decline in agricultural output leads to a decline in farmers’ income, rise in food prices and inflation, affecting rural demand and consumption, and subsequently the overall economy.
According to the recent data, retail inflation declined to a 25-month low of 4.25 per cent in May mainly on favourable base effect and also on account of softening prices of food and fuel items. Food Inflation was at 2.91 per cent in May, lower than 3.84 per cent in April. The food basket accounts for nearly half of the CPI. In the event of poor monsoon and heat wave condition, the Indian economy could go back into the period of growing inflation.
Monsoon in India delivers nearly 70 per cent of the rain needed to water its farms and recharge reservoirs and aquifers, while bringing relief from the worst of the summer. The IMD has forecast below-average rains for June, with the monsoon expected to pick up in July, August and September.
Heavy rainfall warning
The IMD said that light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is very likely over East Rajasthan on 19th June, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall on 20th June and isolated heavy rainfall on 21st June. Further, light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Northwest Madhya Pradesh on 19th, 20th and 21st with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places on 20th June. Light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely with isolated heavy rainfall over adjoining areas of Northeast Madhya Pradesh on 20th June. Light to moderate rainfall at most places is likely with isolated heavy rainfall over Southwest Uttar Pradesh on 20th and 21st June.