Retail food inflation remained in the negative zone for the fifth consecutive month in October when it came in at (-) 5.02%, largely driven by subdued prices of vegetables, cereals, pulses, meat, eggs and spices. Food inflation was in the negative zone in September (-2.28%), August (-0.64%), July (-1.76%) and June (-1.01%).
The consumer food price index (CFPI) declined by 0.24% sequentially in October compared to September. In October last year, the food inflation rate was at 10.87%.
The inflation in the vegetable category was (-) 27.57 last month, compared to (-) 21.38% in September. However, edible oil and fruit inflation remained high at 11.17% and 6.69 % respectively last month.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda said food inflation has come down mainly due to base effects. “In their absence, it would have been higher. Prices of vegetables in particular have increased in the marketplace,” Sabnavis said.
Experts say that prevailing lower mandi prices while in several commodities prices are ruling below minimum support price (MSP) has also helped in keeping inflation low for cereals and pulses in particular.
Inflation in mustard oil and refined oil were 12% and 10.23% respectively last month on year because of the rise in global prices. India imports about 58% of its edible oil consumption.
Overall cereal inflation in September eased further to 0.92% and had been in single digits for the past several months because of softening price rise in rice. Rice inflation last month declined by 0.56% on year. Inflation in wheat last month eased further to 2.04% against a price rise of 3.67% in September.
Inflation in pulses declined by 16.15% last month for night successive months on the prospects of robust kharif as well as rabi harvest and adequate carry forward stock held with the government, trade and other private entities.
Inflation in pulses was as high as 113% in August 2024.
The price rise in arhar continues to be in the negative zone since January, 2025 at – 30.37% last month because of a high base effect as fall in prices due to a record harvest as well as imports.
“Reflecting deep deflation in vegetables and pulses, and a drop in cereals inflation to below 1%. Edible oil prices also declined to a one-year low, aided by favourable global trends and GST rate cuts,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist & executive director, Anand Rathi Group, said.
Inflation in the meat and fish category came in at 1.74% last month.
Chicken declined by 1.91% in October. Egg prices rose by a modest 1.33% last month on year.
Inflation in spices continues to decline since September last year and stood at 3.29% in October on year. Jeera prices declined by 14.49% on year.